I know the Europeans are “different” from us. I get it. Culturally, politically, and philosophically – vive la difference! Most things they do that are…odd…to an American way of thinking I can either rationalize, follow along to see where they’re going to make sense of it or ask my Albanian almost-daughter-in-law, “Vurt da furk?” She translates Euro-think for me as best she can.

In this instance, I have to admit defeat to the French. It sure sounds as if they have themselves A PLAN.

I just need someone to explain it to me.

One takeaway from the @RTE_France's winter electricity outlook published today: France is counting on importing electricity through Oct-Feb from European neighbors, including the UK.

But the UK power grid is also counting on importing electricity from France this winter.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) September 14, 2022

This is Bloomberg, not a parody account – believe me, I checked. Holy schamoly.

That same French grid operator RTE, referenced in the tweet, put out a relatively optimistic electricity forecast for the coming winter.

No risk of total blackout in France but vigilance needed – RTE

PARIS, Sept 14 (Reuters) – There is no risk of a total blackout in France this winter due to the current energy crisis, but some power cuts cannot be ruled out during peaks of demand, grid operator RTE said Wednesday.

RTE said lowering national electricity consumption by 1% to 5% in most scenarios and up to 15% in an extreme scenario of gas shortage and very cold weather could help avert a power crunch. It added it would be on alert to monitor market developments from November, or sooner if needed. RTE usually starts its winter monitoring in January.

The risks to supply are particularly high between November and January, but tense situations cannot be ruled out in October, February or March, RTE said.

The main uncertainties in the power sector include the energy situation in neighbouring countries, demand growth over the coming months, and the restart schedule of French nuclear reactors – half of which are currently offline due to corrosion issues and planned maintenance.

After spending last week and this, writing about the self-defeating renewables/anti-fossil fuel policies of Germany, and the Netherlands, I wasn’t really up to speed on the French. Astonishingly enough in this age of hyperventilating Green tyranny, France has 56 nuclear reactors, with announced plans to build 14 new-generation reactors, and a “fleet” of smaller reactors all over the country. How’d they get so many to begin with? Unlike the United States and other countries, cowering in the face of the Saudi oil embargo of 1974, the French pro-actively went in the opposite direction and started building nuclear plants to transition from fossil fuel generated electricity.

…Over the last decade France has exported up to 70 TWh net each year. In the first half of 2021 France was Europe’s biggest electricity exporter, principally to the UK and Italy.

France’s present electricity generation mix is a result of the French government deciding in 1974, just after the first oil shock, to rapidly expand the country’s nuclear power capacity, using Westinghouse technology. This decision was taken in the context of France having substantial heavy engineering expertise but few known indigenous energy resources. Nuclear energy, with the fuel cost being a relatively small part of the overall cost, made good sense in minimizing imports and achieving greater energy security.

As a result of the 1974 decision, France now claims a substantial level of energy independence and an extremely low level of carbon dioxide emissions per capita from electricity generation, since over 80% of its electricity is from nuclear or hydro.

As 60 Minutes said in 2007, “Vive Les Nukes.”

Sounds good, no? Should be rock solid. But they’re not. Those plants are still operating, but are an average age of 37 years, and their maintenance was delayed significantly by the COVID pandemic. As of right now, they have 32 of the 56 offline, some with significant corrosion problems. Normally, their output average 395 TWh (terawatt hours), but with the on-going maintenance issues, it has been seriously reduced and the timing couldn’t be worse.

…In May 2022 EDF reduced the estimated nuclear output from France’s reactor fleet for 2022 to 280-300 TWh, well below the ten-year average of 395 TWh. It estimates output for 2023 will be 300-330 TWh. As of the end of August 2022, 32 units were offline. Fourteen of those were either undergoing repair or investigation of corrosion problems that were first detected at Civaux 1 in December 2021 (for more information see below), and 18 were offline for routine maintenance. Many planned outages were delayed or reduced in scope in 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

In fact, because France has been shuttering coal and oil power plants without replacing the power generation capacity lost, they have become energy importer. This report from the Renewable Energy Institute doesn’t paint quite as rosy a picture, even given the bias you know would be inherent considering the source.

… the endless delays to start operating Flamanville-3 under construction since 2007 (completion originally planned for 2012 and now expected for 2023 at the earliest) results in a lack of 1,630 MW. As a result, since the beginning of 2022 more than half of French nuclear reactors have sometimes been unavailable leaving a deep hole in the French power system.

Finally, it may be noted that because of these underperformances, as well as the closures of almost all coal and oil power plants in France – which have not been sufficiently replaced by renewable energy, the country has become short on power supply capacity. Therefore, it now needs to rely on expensive imports. In this regard, on April 3, 2022, France’s power imports reached a new record of almost 14 GW (out of which more than half from Germany).3This is an upset for a country that is traditionally one of the world’s largest net exporters of electricity.

That’s confirmation of what the Bloomberg reporter tweeted. RTE is saying we’re fine if nothing EXTREME happens. What qualifies as extreme to the grid operator?

…The most extreme scenarios for France would require the concurrence of several unfavourable events, including a nuclear supply shortage, a gas shortage in Europe, and extreme weather. But even in the worst-case scenario, the energy crunch would lead to consumption limits, not to a total blackout, RTE said.

An extreme situation would be handled by reaching out to companies, communities and individuals via Ecowatt, technical levers including a voltage drop and interrupting large consumers, RTE said.

Wait a minute, guys – everything but the weather is already happening! Where you been?

The skyrocketing prices for that partially imported power are threatening to make an already tenuous economic situation even worse. From auto manufacturers to ski areas to local swimming pools and ice rinks, the list of industries and businesses affected – in fact, some planning to shutter and lay-off employees over winter in order to avoid the bills – is astonishing. People are pissed, and it’s not even cold yet.

France’s public and private sectors race to adapt as winter energy crisis looms

Both the French government and the private sector have been forced to find ways to adapt as gas and electricity prices have risen steadily for months, threatening several sectors with shutdowns in a bid to reduce costs – including swimming pools, gymnasiums and ski resorts.

As autumn approaches, Europe’s energy crisis is affecting several sectors in France. Soaring prices for gas and electricity are drastically increasing the operating costs of both public and private facilities.

Energy prices in France and across Europe hit all-time records in late August. And it looks like the crisis is not over yet: France’s year-ahead electricity prices spiked 25% to €1,130 per megawatt-hour, according to the European Energy Exchange, marking the first time the price of French electricity topped €1,000.

So, no. They really don’t have a plan. The French government better hope it’s too frigid and snowy to be in the streets much.