This morning Ed pointed out that a vote on a war powers resolution has been pushed back until June. Ed's take (and I think he's right) is that the delays created by Iran's refusal to offer anything at all is wearing thin with Republicans, most of whom are up for re-election in a few more months. Ed's post closes with this:
Johnson has given Trump a brief reprieve, perhaps only a couple of weeks, before a potentially embarrassing vote of confidence in his war leadership. He should take that time to put an end to the IRGC's stall tactics and perfidies and make it clear that the IRGC has no choice but to meet the US and Israel on our terms.
I'm starting to suspect Trump has reached the same conclusion. Why? Well, he just canceled a plan to remain in New Jersey at his golf course in Bedminster for the weekend.
President Trump has cancelled plans to stay in New Jersey this weekend and will return to Washington tonight after an event in New York with Representative Mike Lawler.
Here's the change in his schedule.
Trump has canceled his visit to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster and will instead spend the weekend at the White House, his updated schedule shows. pic.twitter.com/t3UFpSY2cJ
— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) May 22, 2026
That's interesting. Even more striking, Trump is planning to miss his son's wedding this weekend. He made the announcement on Truth Social today.
While I very much wanted to be with my son, Don Jr., and the newest member of the Trump Family, his soon to be wife, Bettina, circumstances pertaining to Government, and my love for the United States of America, do not allow me to do so. I feel it is important for me to remain in Washington, D.C., at the White House during this important period of time. Congratulations to Don and Bettina! President DONALD J. TRUMP
So something is going on. It's apparently important that Trump is at the White House this weekend and not anywhere else, even his son's wedding. There must be a reason for that.
One obvious possibility is that he's finally calling time on Iran's delay tactics. If an attack were about to kick off tonight or tomorrow, that would explain why he needs to leave New Jersey, miss the wedding and be at the White House instead. The media would eat him alive if he were at his son's wedding celebrating while an attack was taking place.
But there's another alternative. What if Trump isn't returning for an attack but to sign a deal. Ed noticed this tweet from Noah Rothman referencing terms of a possible deal.
These terms are so impossibly favorable to Iran that I will believe it when I see pens put to paper. If Trump was going to surrender this hard, he could have done it weeks ago. https://t.co/tKZkNa8tx4 pic.twitter.com/X9uXqb2KfO
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) May 22, 2026
The link goes to this Substack piece by Alex Marquardt:
As expected, it would be a multi-step process, building on a previous 14-point proposal. The proposal is a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that sets up negotiations toward a “final deal.” It kicks the can down the road on the toughest issues so that the war can end.
Most notable: a large economic fund for damages to Iran, waivers on Iranian oil sales, eventual unfreezing of funds, lifting of sanctions and nothing firm on nuclear enrichment.
This deal seems pretty favorable to Iran, especially if they're not even committing up front to handing over their bomb-making materials. So I'm a bit skeptical of this. As Rothman says, if Trump was going to settle for this deal, he could have done that weeks ago.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is supposed to travel to West Point tomorrow to give a graduation speech but he could miss that if necessary. As far as other tea leaves go, some observers have noted that Iran's airspace cleared out two days ago.
🚨 Air traffic is now heavily avoiding Iranian airspace.
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) May 22, 2026
The skies around Iran remain packed, but the country itself is turning into a near-empty corridor as airlines reroute around escalating military and security risks. https://t.co/IHnLhgsEJW pic.twitter.com/cGhaiqVelV
The same account posted this on Wednesday:
🚨 A major U.S. Air Force airlift surge into the Middle East is underway as Trump’s latest deadline for Iran rapidly approaches.
— The Iran Watcher 🇮🇷 (@TheIranWatcher) May 20, 2026
Open-source flight trackers are showing unusually heavy military transport activity moving toward the region amid growing fears of another major… https://t.co/wN3l6LfqLU pic.twitter.com/Dj4H82CW0w
Remember, Trump said earlier this week that he came within an hour of launching new attacks but decided to give Iran a few more days.
Journalist:
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 19, 2026
"How close were you to striking Iran yesterday?"
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump:
"I was an hour away. We were all set to go. It would've been happening right now."
The clock Trump said was ticking almost ran out yesterday morning. https://t.co/LMT56Hcv3G pic.twitter.com/DNsMYYZYsp
That was Tuesday. It has been a few more days and nothing has changed. My guess is that Trump is returning to the White House to launch another attack, the one he called off at the last minute earlier this week. But I can't rule out the opposite possibility which is that he's going to announce some kind of deal instead. But given the kind of threats Iran has been making and their unwillingness to commit to handing over their nuclear material, that seems less likely.
Either way, I think we can expect some major developments on Iran in the next 12 hours. Stay tuned. If there is going to be a strike, it might start later tonight.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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