Normally I don’t work this late but there are potentially world-changing events happening tonight. For those that need a quick primer, you can go back and read these four posts for the longer version. This has been building up for months:
- Feb – Is this man about to fall out of a high window in Russia?
- May – Prigozhin proclaims the war in Ukraine on the verge of failure, one that could lead to a new Russian revolution
- June – A showdown between Prigozhin and Putin?
- Friday – Prigozhin blames invasion on defense minister, says it wasn’t necessary (Update: Russian army strikes Wagner base! Civil war?)
The bullet points:
- Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group and longtime friend of Putin, has been berating the Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu publicly for months, blaming him for failures in Ukraine.
- Wagner took the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut while the Russian army seemed to be accomplishing nothing. This raised Prigozhin’s stock and he became even more outspoken.
- Wagner retreated and handed Bakhmut over to the Russian army. Prigozhin mocked the army and predicted they would lose all his gains.
- Prigozhin was told his troops would need to sign new agreements with the army, effectively putting them under the control of Prigozhin’s nemesis, defense minister Shoigu.
- Prigozhin said no even after Putin endorsed the plan.
- Friday, Prigozhin released a message saying the entire pretext for the invasion was a lie concocted by the defense minister for his own aggrandizement.
- Hours later, Prigozhin claims defense minister Shoigu had bombed a camp full of his troops. He announced a “March for Justice” which he said wasn’t a coup but would rid the government of Shoigu.
So now let’s catch up on events of the past few hours. Prigozhin’s troops have been fighting with the army in and around the Russian town of Rostov.
BREAKING:
The Wagner Group has launched a military coup and are now fighting against the Russian Army.
Around 30 000 Wagner soldiers have now taken control of a large area north of the Russian city of Rostov.
A Russian helicopter has been shot down. pic.twitter.com/wEf7Vw63pJ
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
BREAKING:
The Wagner Group enters the Russian city of Rostov as part of the military coup they have launched. pic.twitter.com/ageStcUnIa
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
They attacked the headquarters of the defense ministry in Rostov.
BREAKING:
The Wagner Group is storming the headquarters of the Russian Defense Ministry in the city of Rostov.
The military coup continues pic.twitter.com/91yqLti4AG
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
They apparently have taken control of the city.
Russian police officers meeting in Central Rostov to discuss what to do as the Wagner Group takes control of the city following the military coup. pic.twitter.com/WAOm2gtXk0
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Here’s Prigozhin apparently talking calmly with a deputy defense minister in Rostov.
In another video posted shortly afterwards, Prigozhin says Wagner controls "the military facilities of Rostov, including the airport," but is not hindering operations in the invasion of Ukraine.
“We do it in such a way that the attack planes do not hit us, but the Ukrainians." pic.twitter.com/kGR8ij9AVu
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
Prigozhin’s forces are already headed to Voronezh which is about halfway to Moscow.
BREAKING:
A Wagner Group military convoy has left the city of Rostov and is heading towards the city of Voronezh.
Voronezh is 6 hours from Moscow by car. pic.twitter.com/4pw4LHlLEN
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Wagner column in the Voronezh region, ➡️ direction "Moscow" pic.twitter.com/oMreLpZGlf
— MAKS 23 👀🇺🇦 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) June 24, 2023
Lots of Russians trying to get out of the way.
Large traffic jams reported in the Voronezh region as Russians are trying to flee the advancing Wagner troops following the military coup in Russia.pic.twitter.com/NCI7wFtiNy
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Russian helicopters firing on the Wagner convoy.
BREAKING:
A Russian military helicopter just struck 2 vehicles of a Wagner Group military column in the Voronezh region. pic.twitter.com/H4hSw3Af6U
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
And the highway north of Voronezh has been closed.
The governor of Lipetsk region says the M4 highway linking Rostov to Moscow has been closed at the province's border with Voronezh region. https://t.co/XOhGRscCFW
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
Update: Looks like more progress.
BREAKING:
The Wagner Group has taken control of Russian military facilities in Voronezh.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Wagner PMC Telegram:
"Military facilities in Voronezh have been taken under control of Wagner PMC. The army moves to the side of the people." pic.twitter.com/tgjOh1vp59— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2023
Meanwhile in Moscow:
Putin is about to address the nation, the Kremlin says. https://t.co/ZiRwlRiIw5
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
BREAKING:
Moscow declares a counter-terrorist regime to give Russian security forces increased powers to deal with Prigozhin’s military coup
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Apparently that means the FSB is now in charge of everything in the areas where the counter-terrorist regime is in place.
In Moscow, now, the regime of the counter-terrorist operation:
▪️the FSB is the main authority
▪️The security forces monitor all communication
▪️Jam connections
▪️Inspect individuals, transport
▪️Use the transport and property of citizens and organizations
▪️access all premises— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) June 24, 2023
Putin’s address to the nation seems to have been delayed. Russian TV is scrambling.
Bewildered Russian TV hosts as Putin’s speech continues to be pushed forward
"Right now we're going to commercials and then…. more commercials"
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Putin’s address has started. No video yet but some are translating in real time.
Putin says Russia is in a fight for its future, "we fight for the lives and safety of our people, for our sovereignty and independence," and requires the unification of all forces, calls actions currently dividing a stab in the back to the Russian people.
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) June 24, 2023
In a televised address, Putin now warning about a repeat of the Russian Civil War. "We will not allow that to be repeated." He calls what's happening "internal betrayal."
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) June 24, 2023
Putin says people organizing an uprising will receive a harsh punishment, answering not only to the Russian law but to the Russian people.
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) June 24, 2023
Putin: Those who have organized and carried out an armed uprising… have betrayed Russia and will answer for it…
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) June 24, 2023
Putin says the situation in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don remains difficult, noting that the organs of civilian and military leadership there have effectively been blocked.
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) June 24, 2023
Putin: "I repeat, any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood, to us as a nation. This is a blow to Russia, to our people, and our actions to protect our fatherland from this threat will be severe."
— Paul Sonne (@PaulSonne) June 24, 2023
Here’s a bit of the statement. I don’t understand a word of it but you can get the look and the tone.
Video of #Putin's address on the #Prigogine rebellion. pic.twitter.com/WktlAd8n4n
— Intelligence NFA 🇬🇧🇺🇦 (@RsRobert78) June 24, 2023
Here’s a live translation of a portion of the speech. Near the end, Putin calls this treason.
BREAKING: In a recorded address, Vladimir Putin says the Wagner group rebellion is a 'criminal adventuristic campaign' and "equivalent to armed mutiny".
He says: "It is an attempt to subvert us from inside. This is treason."#Russia #Putin #Kremlin #Moscow pic.twitter.com/tzhdoCs8sS
— NATO🇺🇸 VS KREMLIN🇷🇺 (@eduinfotech101) June 24, 2023
I’m running out of steam so I’m going to call it a night. I’ll probably update this some more in the morning.
Update: So let’s catch up on what happened over night and it does not disappoint. As you know, Putin just called what Wagner/Prigozhin are doing “treason.” So let’s start with a fully translated version of Putin’s speech from last night.
President Putin address to Russian People 🇷🇺
(English subs) pic.twitter.com/Silb4IWZj9
— Black Diamond (@blackdiammon) June 24, 2023
Up to that point it hasn’t been clear if this was a coup against Putin or just a rebellion aimed at the defense minister. As of 8 hours ago, it’s definitely a coup.
BREAKING:
Wagner reacts to Putin’s speech:
“He made the wrong decision. Too bad for him. We will have a new president soon”
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Quotes directly from Prigozhin, still claiming he’s a patriot but he won’t obey Putin.
Prigozhin tells Putin to get stuffed: "On the subject of betraying the motherland, the president is deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our motherland […] And nobody is planning to hand themselves in on the orders of the president, FSB, or anyone else."https://t.co/hj52eRC8TP
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
The other loose end in all of this is Chechen strongman Kadyrov. He’s siding with Putin.
BREAKING:
Kadyrov releases a statement, saying that Prigozhin has stabbed Russia in the back and that Kadyrov has sent Chechen soldiers to fight against the Wagner Group pic.twitter.com/r18XODWlWG
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Meanwhile in Ukraine, a meme has come to life!
🍿🍿🍿 Ukrainian drone commander who fought Wagner forces in Bakhmut and Soledar appears to be thoroughly enjoying the insurrection unfolding across the border. pic.twitter.com/rSqGdrVlrT
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 24, 2023
Efforts to block the advance of Wagner toward Moscow don’t seem to be working.
BREAKING:
A large military column of the Wagner Group has entered the city of Buturlinovka in the Voronezh region. pic.twitter.com/AaAHlF11MS
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Russia is responding by blowing up fuel depots in the region.
BREAKING:
Russian military helicopters are bombing fuel depots held by the Wagner Group in the Voronezh region. pic.twitter.com/X3nuViprvm
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
Russia is now bombing oil depots in the Voronezh region to prevent the Wagner Group from refueling their military column on their way to Moscow pic.twitter.com/QgMajhXfBV
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
But blockades on the highway aren’t working.
BREAKING: The Wagner group storms past blockades and are just a couple hours from Moscow city.
Putin appears to have fled by plane for St. Petersburg.pic.twitter.com/81us3ey250
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) June 24, 2023
There are unconfirmed reports that Putin has fled Moscow by plane and is now in St. Petersburg.
Putin has reportedly fled Moscow after the Wagner group, currently launching a military coup, have set their sights on Moscow, with troops reportedly heading towards the Russian Capital.
The presidential plane took off headed north from Moscow towards Tver before switching off… pic.twitter.com/wWvUFn2GGI
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) June 24, 2023
Good point here from a foreign affairs commenter from the Financial Times:
"Even if the Russian leader prevails in the immediate battle against Wagner, it is hard to believe that Putin can ultimately survive this kind of humiliation. His prestige, his power, even his life, are now on the line," writes @gideonrachman https://t.co/doPWvtXZwO
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
The army is still preparing to defend Moscow. Not sure where Defense Minister Shoigu is at this point.
BREAKING:
The Russian Army has started building machine gun positions on the south-western entrances on the ring-road to Moscow.
It’s the expected attack direction of the Wagner Group.
Is the Battle of Moscow about to happen? pic.twitter.com/VmRrt9vxBW
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
BREAKING:
The Wagner Group has now reached the Lipetsk region.
Moscow is only 4 hours away by car.
The Battle of Moscow could start this evening. pic.twitter.com/SBISoA56OK
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The Chechen fighters of Ramzan Kadrov are trying to get to Rostov to fight with Wagner.
Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has a substantial military, has ordered his troops to surround the Wagner mercenaries currently occupying Rostov. #Russia #RussiaIsCollapsing #RussianCivilWar #Wagner #WagnerCoup #WagnerGroup pic.twitter.com/9dfy3hjzrG
— Paul Golding (@GoldingBF) June 24, 2023
Fighting has broken out among civilians on the streets.
There are street fights among civilians in the Center of Rostov where a concentration of Wagner Forces had recently gathered pic.twitter.com/HUAmM0sbms
— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) June 24, 2023
The Wagner Group is a couple of hours away from Moscow.
The city is being defended by police forces and ill-equipped conscript units as 95+ percent of the Russian Army is in Eastern Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/Fth2uFZ6Or
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
And that’s where things stand. Wagner forces are a few hours from Moscow. Chechen forces loyal to Putin are surrounding Rostov potentially for a big showdown with Wagner. There are unconfirmed reports of other forces siding with Wagner and Prigozhin.
Ed has a report coming up on the future of the war in Ukraine.
Update: Wager was advancing…
Eyewitnesses report that #Prigozhin’s columns of Wagner have entered the Moscow region and have already passed the village of Barabanovo (Kashira)
It's a two-hour drive to Moscow
The last major obstacle ahead is the Oka river#RussiaIsCollapsing #RussianCivilWar pic.twitter.com/RCiE3BNqKr
— Dmytro Natalukha (@DmytroNatalukha) June 24, 2023
But suddenly a deal has been reached.
BREAKING:
Prigozhin just stated that he has proved his point and that the Wagner Group will stop its advance on Moscow.
He says that a deal has been struck and that he is pulling his troops back to the barracks.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
This was apparently negotiated by Lukashenko of Belarus.
🚨 Belarus says it has convinced Prigozhin to stand down his armed uprising.
Lukashenko spent "the entire day" negotiating with Prigozhin after "agreeing on joint actions" with Putin and "additionally clarifying the situation through his own channels."https://t.co/XTaqDy4h3r
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
Prigozhin: "Right now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Therefore, understanding all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our convoy around and going back to our basecamps, according to the plan."
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
Apparently, Prigozhin is no longer guilty of treason.
How can Putin do a deal with Prigozhin after telling the nation he's a traitor?
What kind of "security guarantees" can Prigozhin get, when Putin said he'd kill him?
And if Prigozhin got anything out of the deal, such as Shoigu's resignation – how could Putin possibly agree?
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
Some people apparently no happy this is over.
In opposition to Putin, the Russian people are out on the streets of Rostov, chanting:
“Wagner, Wagner, Wagner”
This is far from over… pic.twitter.com/MN2bilRUXG
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
The Wagner rank-and-file soldiers are furious with Prigozhin calling off the Battle of Moscow.
Russian units who switched sides and joined Prigozhin can’t be happy either.
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 24, 2023
But it seems like the Wagner fighters really are leaving.
Wagner's fighters are already leaving Rostov to a rapturous reception, per a Prigozhin-affiliated Telegram channel. https://t.co/49JuhYve2A pic.twitter.com/9IRLPDMFQL
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
Obviously this is a very unstable situation at the moment with groups of fighters everywhere. Hard to say what the outcome of all this will be in a week or a month.
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