Normally I don’t work this late but there are potentially world-changing events happening tonight. For those that need a quick primer, you can go back and read these four posts for the longer version. This has been building up for months:

The bullet points:

So now let’s catch up on events of the past few hours. Prigozhin’s troops have been fighting with the army in and around the Russian town of Rostov.

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They attacked the headquarters of the defense ministry in Rostov.

They apparently have taken control of the city.

Here’s Prigozhin apparently talking calmly with a deputy defense minister in Rostov.

Prigozhin’s forces are already headed to Voronezh which is about halfway to Moscow.

Lots of Russians trying to get out of the way.

Russian helicopters firing on the Wagner convoy.

And the highway north of Voronezh has been closed.

Update: Looks like more progress.

Meanwhile in Moscow:

Apparently that means the FSB is now in charge of everything in the areas where the counter-terrorist regime is in place.

Putin’s address to the nation seems to have been delayed. Russian TV is scrambling.

Putin’s address has started. No video yet but some are translating in real time.

Here’s a bit of the statement. I don’t understand a word of it but you can get the look and the tone.

Here’s a live translation of a portion of the speech. Near the end, Putin calls this treason.

I’m running out of steam so I’m going to call it a night. I’ll probably update this some more in the morning.

Update: So let’s catch up on what happened over night and it does not disappoint. As you know, Putin just called what Wagner/Prigozhin are doing “treason.” So let’s start with a fully translated version of Putin’s speech from last night.

Up to that point it hasn’t been clear if this was a coup against Putin or just a rebellion aimed at the defense minister. As of 8 hours ago, it’s definitely a coup.

Quotes directly from Prigozhin, still claiming he’s a patriot but he won’t obey Putin.

The other loose end in all of this is Chechen strongman Kadyrov. He’s siding with Putin.

 

Meanwhile in Ukraine, a meme has come to life!

Efforts to block the advance of Wagner toward Moscow don’t seem to be working.

Russia is responding by blowing up fuel depots in the region.

But blockades on the highway aren’t working.

There are unconfirmed reports that Putin has fled Moscow by plane and is now in St. Petersburg.

Good point here from a foreign affairs commenter from the Financial Times:

The army is still preparing to defend Moscow. Not sure where Defense Minister Shoigu is at this point.

The Chechen fighters of Ramzan Kadrov are trying to get to Rostov to fight with Wagner.

Fighting has broken out among civilians on the streets.

And that’s where things stand. Wagner forces are a few hours from Moscow. Chechen forces loyal to Putin are surrounding Rostov potentially for a big showdown with Wagner. There are unconfirmed reports of other forces siding with Wagner and Prigozhin.

Ed has a report coming up on the future of the war in Ukraine.

Update: Wager was advancing…

But suddenly a deal has been reached.

This was apparently negotiated by Lukashenko of Belarus.

Apparently, Prigozhin is no longer guilty of treason.

Some people apparently no happy this is over.

But it seems like the Wagner fighters really are leaving.

Obviously this is a very unstable situation at the moment with groups of fighters everywhere. Hard to say what the outcome of all this will be in a week or a month.