The title question is one that Jim Geraghty sought to answer today in the Morning Jolt. For some time now, many people assumed that Joe Biden is only running for a second term because his wife talked him into it. But perhaps there’s more going on behind the scenes than meets the eye. Jim reminds us that people inside of Biden’s campaign and his administration have told reporters on background that it was “virtually inconceivable” that Biden would run for a second term. But now he’s back in the race and it may be because of Kamala Harris. But don’t assume we mean that the Veep talked him into it. It’s pretty much the opposite of that.

Politico reported in December 2019: “According to four people who regularly talk to Biden, all of whom asked for anonymity to discuss internal campaign matters, it is virtually inconceivable that he will run for reelection in 2024, when he would be the first octogenarian president.” Some unnamed adviser told the publication, “If Biden is elected, he’s going to be 82 years old in four years and he won’t be running for reelection.”

Apparently, “Biden 2024” was not the original plan; passing the torch to Harris was apparently the plan. And now, that plan is unworkable.

Back in March, some unnamed White House official told Reuters’ Jeff Mason and Nandita Bose that Biden “is also convinced that neither Harris nor any other Democratic hopefuls would be able to beat former President Donald Trump if he is the Republican nominee.”

The thinking here seems to be that Joe Biden might not really even want to run again. (Assuming he’s still capable of thinking things through that far.) The original plan was to try to make it through one term and then “pass the torch” to Kamala Harris who would presumably be the default nominee in 2024.

Then, unfortunately for the Democrats, the next two and a half years happened. Kamala Harriss turned out to be a cackling trainwreck who is obsessed with Venn diagrams and is frequently mocked even by members of her own party and the mainstream media that serves them. If you think Joe Biden’s approval rating is bad (and it is) hers is somehow even worse. On the rare occasions when pollsters test a possible matchup between Harris and Donald Trump, the Bad Orange Man leaves her in the dust.

If Joe Biden had announced that he wasn’t running again or if he reverses course and pulls out of the race now, Kamala Harris would be furious if she wasn’t seen as the default nominee. It’s not hard to see a civil war breaking out in the Democratic Party and their hopes for 2024 riding very low in the water. And it’s not as if they have a deep bench to run to now to find someone else. So it may look like Biden is the Democrats’ Obi-Wan Kenobi at this point.

I’ll go one step further and suggest that Democratic Party leaders are seeing the possibility that Uncle Joe might just squeak through for another term when none of the rest of the wannabes would. At that point, Joe could wait until January or February of 2025 and then “suddenly develop a medical problem” that forces him to step down. Then they’re able to get Harris into the office via the back door and America is even more screwed than we appear to be now.

Yes, feel free to hate me for typing that last paragraph. The future’s so bright I gotta wear shades, folks.