Where to Now, St. Peter? Can You Show Me Which Road I'm On?

It may be rocky, windy, and unlit, but there is a path forward after last night. 

Each time Republicans had a very bad night — the '96 reelection of Bill Clinton, the 2006 war-weary "thumpin'" as George W. Bush called it, Barack Obama's election that promised seas no longer rising two years later, Mitt Romney's loss in 2012, the 2020 COVID election of the Biden regency, the red wave two years later that wasn't, the anger, disappointment, depression, and despair were real and palpable. I felt it, too. For most of those events, we were on the air broadcasting the misery coast-to-coast as it unfolded while wishing we were anywhere else. 

Last night was the equal to any bad night Republicans experienced in my adult lifetime. The classic stages of grief are underway. But after every one of those bad nights, there was a path forward. It may not have been yellow-bricked, but the path was there. The country endured, and the GOP came back. 

The hole the Republican Party faces, especially when you factor in governorships and state legislatures that were lost in addition to a big swing in the House and Senate, is cavernous, without question. But there is a path. 

On the West Coast, by late morning yesterday, I was buoyed by the turnout from Florida, while not setting records, wasn't too bad. It certainly was enough to win in a bad cycle for Republicans. In Texas and Nevada, there was a drop after four hours of morning voting that indicated rural voters were turning out, and then that telemetry stopped until after the polls closed. The hopium we were inhaling was that Florida would be a leading indicator of turnout for the rest of the country. Instead, it was an anomaly. The rural voters that were going to vote did before lunchtime, and the rest sat on their hands. 

We have a long and storied tradition in this country, especially since FDR, of using up our presidents. After a couple terms, we're pretty much over them and ready for something new. President Trump was always going to deal with that regardless of the rhetorical and policy detours upon which he frequently embarks. But he leaned into that headwind by asking rallygoers, and by extension his MAGA coalition, to rise one more time as though he were on the ballot. 

The reality of last night is that only half of Donald Trump's superpower was realized, and the other half of it was hit by kryptonite. There is no one that can energize his own base and turn out Republican voters than Donald Trump. There is also no one in American politics that can simultaneously generate votes against him. On Tuesday, Trump generated his opposition in sufficient numbers. It was a little larger than 2022, but not quite 2024 levels. What cracked was Trump's base, by and large, did not turn out in nearly enough numbers outside of Florida. 

There will be a thousand hot takes as to why and why not, but as much as it pains me to admit it, the warnings about socialism, communism, antisemitism, tariffs, healthcare, culture issues, all of that was noise. None of it mattered. 

There is a significant chunk of the MAGA base that is isolationist at its core. They are beyond war weary, despite the justness of the cause, and wanted the Trump administration to seal the border, which it did, handle economic issues, which it did, and do no harm. And by no harm, they mean pick a fight somewhere overseas. 

I will say something here that should be no surprise to anyone that has read any column I've written here this year. I woke up this morning realizing I am clearly in the minority in this viewpoint, but my viewpoint has not changed. Donald Trump was absolutely correct in tackling the Iran problem. It was the right decision from a national security standpoint, and it was the right thing to do on moral grounds. Iran simply was no longer a can which could be kicked down the road. The nuclear ambitions and their ability to act on it was an unacceptable threat. 

Despite all the crazy things said and done by the President, I am able to compartmentalize and focus on the big things he's gotten right in just two years. And there is a lot he's gotten right. The border is under control, the onshoring of American manufacturing is currently supercharging the U.S. economy, energy production has been unleashed, deregulation has been rampant, the tax burden on most Americans has been eased, and there is much more opportunity for upward mobility even with higher energy costs. 

Trump's foreign policy has been vastly right more than not, even though tariffs were overused. And I recognize a lot of my friends would take issue with how he's handled Russia. That's a longer conversation for a different day. The Iran strategy was always to remove it as a threat to us and the West, and at the same time, along with a more robust show of force in the Western Hemisphere, part of a bigger strategy to isolate China and make our biggest global threat recalculate. That has happened. 

Where this went sideways for the administration was not seeing the kinetic action through and toppling the regime. The decapitation strike in the first moments of the war was great, and the six weeks that followed systemically degraded their ability to be a threat to the region. But then, Trump pulled back in order to make a deal. Part of that was to manage spiking oil prices. Another part was to manage the Arab coalition in the Middle East that was getting squeamish. But we pulled back and eventually shifted to the blockade and economic sanction strategy. In the interval, the gap in time allowed the Houthis, the last Iranian proxy standing, to ramp up and get involved. That was a mistake. 

Operation Economic Fury and Operation Outcast should remain in place. In my assessment, they are probably sufficient to ultimately bring about the regime's demise. The downside is it is taking longer than Trump's MAGA base was willing to stand. Tuesday's reduced turnout in Mississippi, Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa, Alaska, Georgia, and Maine by Republicans, and yes, there are enough voters who could have reversed some of the outcomes last night had they exercised the franchise, is because gas prices, inflation, and grocery bills had come down precipitously after the Biden regency years, and then they immediately climbed again with the onset of the war. And they did not like it. Tuesday was not an endorsement of anything the left offered. It was a reaction to what they view as a betrayal of Trump's promise to put America first.

My friend, Jim Geraghty, and he is a very good friend of a couple decades, continued the bloodletting that began last night with the party's aorta rupturing somewhere between Ohio and Texas by needling those Texas Republicans who believed Ken Paxton would beat James Talarico with ease. The reality is that Paxton, while being the weakest of the slate of senate candidates this cycle, was not the reason for the wipeout last night. In fact, none of the candidates on either side really mattered. If Trump voters turned out, Mike Rogers wins. If Trump voters turned out in Maine, Susan Collins wins. They didn't, and that's that.

So now where to, St. Peter? Can you show me which road I'm on? I'm certain Sir Elton John doesn't have the answer to the question about which he sang in 1970, but I do have some suggestions for the path forward for the President and the Republicans. 

1. Finish the job in Iran. It's clearly unpopular with MAGA, and I don't really care much what the left thinks. They'll soon be in control of Congress and a lot of statehouses, but their worldview, such that it is, is anathema to anything I value. There is around a three-month window ahead, maybe a little more, but not much, to finish the job and end this evil, maniacal, cult regime once and for all. Yes, the President could pull up stakes, or anchors, and come back home, but that would make the perception of everything we did up to now for naught. Removing the Iranian regime, reorienting the Middle East into an Arab regional alliance of self-defense with Israel as the region's hegemon seems the best way forward. It finishes removing another ally China had in the region, isolating them further. Hammer the regime and enable the Iranian population to overthrow what's left and foster a revolution. Hang the W. on the big board of accomplishments and put it in the rearview mirror before primary debates get underway. The only way is through.

2. Tackle the debt. Seize the high ground on the issue and propose real solutions in the way of entitlement reform. Expose the vapidity of Democrats, especially the Medicare-for-all nonsense that swept in from Michigan to Maine, and have this debate out once and for all. 

3. The lame duck Congress has one more bite at the reconciliation apple. Use it. Get passed what can qualify under the Byrd rule and jam it through before heading off to the wilderness. 

4. Get on with the bloodletting, but get over it by the time the primaries commence. The country will be gridlocked for two years, but 2028 is looming. If the Republican base does not coalesce to fight what is likely to be a progressive's dream ticket on the Democrat side, what we're on the verge of on January 20th, 2029 is the Californication of America. And trust me. I live here. That's nothing you want to see. I'm confident the happiest person in America this morning is not Hasan Piker. It's Gavin Newsom. He sees 2028 as his oyster. 

5. Just say no. For all who wanted to destroy the legislative filibuster, and I guess by extension, including me under very narrow circumstances, for the next two years, we will relearn to love the filibuster. One of the perverse outcomes of the shellacking yesterday is the Democrats will be so close to 60, they'll be leery about taking that step to break it, despite what they've said for years. They might, but odds are they won't, believing they'll increase their numbers further in 2028 and get to 60 the old-fashioned way. 

6. Rethink redistricting. The weapons-free, mid-decade cycle of redrawing the maps from Florida to California, with stops in Texas to give Republicans an advantage, backfired spectacularly. Too many states fell for the siren song of carving up R+10 seats into more R+2 seats. On paper, if you're in good shape politically, that's terrific. Going into a midterm of a president who's been in office six years, you run the risk of handing your opponents a whole bunch of new seats that you created if there is a blue wave. Florida and Texas figured they'd add 10 new GOP seats between them. I think they added one.  

Speaker Mike Johnson has already said he'll not seek leadership when the Republicans go into the minority. It remains unclear what the remaining GOP senators will do with their leadership team. The backlash against John Thune, John Barrasso and others in leadership will intensify, but the stark reality is the election was not lost because the SAVE Act stalled or the filibuster wasn't nuked. It was lost because of the war and gas prices. 

Republicans will regroup. They always do. Brandon Gill in Texas was a model of how to survive a blue wave. He won his Congressional district by 15 points on a night with carnage all around him. Why? Because he's young, communicates very well, and is a very effective fighter. 

The path forward is now in the hands of the next generation. Whether it be a Ron DeSantis in Florida, Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, Rep. Gill, Glenn Youngkin, Ted Cruz, Pete Hegseth, not in any order, and there will most likely be others, the next GOP hopeful will be younger, preferably with military experience, exceptional communications skills, and an agenda that promises to expand on Trump's accomplishments without the negative distractions. Right now, being inside Trump's administration is not a selling point. But if the war gets resolved successfully in a decisive win, that issue flips around to the GOP's favor. And when the economy responds as expected, being part of the Trump administration won't be a negative. 

The path forward is though, not turning around. Finish what was started in Iran, face the challenges ahead clear-eyed and with a positive agenda for how to keep the country growing, and reject the evil that will be on display full tilt by the left now that they're back in the game. 

Onward. 

 

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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