Axios: Trump Teeing Up Hegseth As Scapegoat; Trump Denies

What's the primary value of a Cabinet secretary? Expendability. When things go wrong or voters turn sour, presidents historically react by dumping one or two to demonstrate a change of direction, even when the direction comes from the president. Perhaps especially when the direction comes from the president.

Looks like Pete Hegseth may learn that political lesson the hard way:

It's a de facto motto in the Trump White House: "Somebody's gotta take the fall." Lately, that person looks like Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

Why it matters: From the unpopular war in Iran to his bad bipartisan relations with members of Congress, Hegseth's record has made him the most vulnerable member of Trump's Cabinet after Tuesday night's midterm shellacking.

• "Hegseth is definitely on thin ice," a Trump adviser told Axios. "It doesn't mean the president forces him out. But there are complications."

We'll get to the complications shortly. First, though, the claim from Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt that this is a "de facto motto" in this administration is pretty accurate. There are a little over two dozen Cabinet and Cabinet-level offices requiring Senate confirmation, and Trump has already dispatched at least three of them, and arguably a half-dozen:

• Pam Bondi, Attorney General – fired
• Kristi Noem, Homeland Security – fired
• Lori Chaves-DeRemer, Labor – resigned 
• Tulsi Gabbard, National Intelligence Director – resigned
• Susan Monarez, Surgeon General – fired after a month
• Stephen Miran, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers – resigned

Of all these, only Miran left without some sort of policy or scandal cloud hanging over him. Trump has used the traditional mechanism of loading blame on Cabinet members when necessary, something Joe Biden and/or his handlers refused to do at all. 

Trump denied the reports this morning to ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl (via Power Line):

Trump told me this morning he intends to keep Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary: “I have every intention to keep him.” Trump acknowledged receiving calls from people unhappy with Hegseth, but said, “I get these calls, you know, about him. I don't understand why.” He also acknowledged it would be easier to confirm a new Defense Secretary before the Democrats take over the Senate in January.

— Jonathan Karl (@jonkarl) November 5, 2026

The problem here is that Hegseth didn't create the problem Trump wants to solve. Secretaries of War do not start wars, do not end wars, and do not pause wars. All three of those actions originate with the president. Hegseth's job is to carry out those orders and prepare the military to do so successfully. Trump can offer Hegseth up to signal a change in direction, just as George W. Bush did after the equally disastrous 2006 midterms with Donald Rumsfeld, but that didn't change the assessment of that war with the public, and it's not likely to work this time either. 

John Nolte put it well today on X/Twitter:

The only military blunder committed was by Trump and Vance. They paused a war we were winning; dragged it out straight through to the midterms.

This was an easy win: crush Iran, occupy the Strait, declare victory, and get the hell out . This would've removed the uncertainty holding back the economy and removed the unnerving of an American public sick of war.

Trump made the same mistake every president (except H.W. Bush) has made since Vietnam -- this inhumane idea that there's such a thing as a humane war. ...

Hegseth didn't spend three months bellowing about how a peace treaty would be signed tomorrow, the regime was ready to collapse, and the war would only last a little longer. 

Hell, Trump didn't even have to win. All he had to do was secure the Strait, and say that our victory was setting Iran's nuke program back a decade or so.

Caputo and Isenstadt report that Trump sees Hegseth as the issue for offering overly "rosy" projections about the war. If that's true, then Trump may have a legitimate gripe. However, I'd bet dollars to donuts that Hegseth's projections didn't include three-month pauses, fruitless negotiations with IRGC terrorists, and occasional oil releases to keep funding flowing to the regime in Tehran. That advice seems much more likely to have come from J.D. Vance, but Trump can't fire Vance, who was elected to his office. He can fire Hegseth.

So what about the complications? First off, there's the question of what to do with Hegseth. It's in Trump's interest to keep him within the tent and to keep from fracturing his base even further. Hegseth might want to defend his reputation in public and might take aim at Vance while doing so. Caputo and Isenstadt report that Trump may ask Tennessee governor-elect Marsha Blackburn to appoint Hegseth to her Senate seat once she takes office. Hegseth has a home in the state, and Blackburn may be inclined to do Trump a favor or two. 

The bigger complication is replacing Hegseth. After January, there will be no chance for confirmations in the final two years of Trump's term, at least not for appointments that Chuck Schumer won't approve. It may be possible to squeeze a confirmation hearing for a replacement into what's left of the Senate legislative calendar, but it won't be easy. And who would Trump choose? Mike Rogers suddenly has time on his hands and has allies on Capitol Hill. But can John Thune organize in time to push Rogers or anyone else to a final confirmation vote? Only if Trump acts very, very quickly. 

There's not much justice in this for Hegseth. He did exactly what Trump wanted in redirecting military policy and focus to warmaking capacity, and his efforts resulted in astounding successes against Iran. A Senate seat would be a good consolation prize, and it's better than most Cabinet officials get when presidents need to demonstrate a change of direction to angry voters. If Trump really plans to do this, though, the clock is ticking. 

Editor's Note: Thanks to President Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth's leadership, the warrior ethos is coming back to America's military.

Help us continue to report on Trump and Hegseth's successes as they make our military great again. Join HotAir VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.