Desperate times call for desperate measures. And the IRGC may have never faced a situation as desperate as its predicament at the moment.
The truth is that Iran is failing, and failing badly enough to eventually provoke a violent reaction from its captive populace. The IRGC has two ways to avoid that. The first is to cut a deal with Donald Trump that he would actually accept at this stage to lift the economic siege warfare that is collapsing the Iranian economy. The second is to restart a war to distract the populace with nationalistic and theocratic propaganda.
Looks like the IRGC tried for Option 2, and had about as much luck as ever. The U.S. Navy and CENTCOM announced late last week that they had cleared Iranian mines from the international passages of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively reopening all routes. The IRGC attempted to re-mine the Strait, but CENTCOM pre-empted the attack with one of its own:
The U.S. military struck Iranian military targets to prevent the deployment of sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. official said.
Why it matters: This is the first known U.S. strike in Iran since late July when President Trump paused a two-week U.S. military campaign in the strait in late July.
Driving the news: U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Iran's Larak Island after IRGC forces were observed preparing to launch rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said.
- Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported a drone conducted the strike and two people have been killed and two others wounded.
What they're saying: CENTCOM on Sunday night described the strike as "limited, precise action" against IRGC minelaying forces that posed an "imminent threat" in the Strait of Hormuz.
What prompted the IRGC to lay mines via remote launchers? For one thing, it has no blue-water navy to do it. Even its littoral navy – fast boats more suited to coastal patrols – can't sail into these waters without being detected by the U.S. Navy and blown to bits. The motive behind the mine-laying itself is obvious: the IRGC has lost its only leverage in the Strait, as well as its excuse for failure with the Iranian populace, and it wants both back. In a hurry.
The U.S. does not appear anxious to provide Ahmad Vahidi with that kind of political cover. The strike on Larak Island was limited to the imminent threat to shipping. It's the first such strike in a month, but it took place on a remote outpost of the IRGC's ground, not in Tehran or near any significant population that might need a distraction from the impacts of the economic siege.
The IRGC insists that the strike was a "strategic and fatal error," but no one takes this seriously any longer – not even the American media, which until recently had been fully invested in promoting an IRGC victory:
Brig. Gen. Hossein Mohebi, a spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the U.S. strike was “a strategic and fatal error by the Trump administration” and would lead to “severe repercussions,” according to the country’s official news agency.
The Revolutionary Guards said the attack on Larak Island killed and wounded several of its servicemen and Iranian civilians, according to state media. U.S. officials said the rocket launchers that were struck belonged to the Revolutionary Guards.
Larak is a small Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz that has become a key military and shipping-control point for Tehran. The island is used by the Revolutionary Guards to monitor vessel traffic and sits in a strategic position overlooking the waterway, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.
Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the strait have reduced traffic going through it to a trickle. The U.S. imposed a blockade of Iranian ports intending to pressure the regime into reopening the waterway, but Iran has continued to fire on vessels that don’t use the route close to its coast.
The IRGC actually hit a tanker passing close by to Oman. That attack has apparently dialed back some traffic in the Strait and oil prices jumped a bit this morning. Whether that's from the exchange of attacks or Donald Trump's AI-video threat to take out Kharg Island next is not quite clear:
The U.S. has had plenty of opportunity to destroy the facilities at Kharg Island and has not made a move in that direction since the early days of the war. Why not? Destroying Kharg would keep Iranian oil off the markets for decades, and that would have a big and immediate impact on oil markets. The U.S. could seize Kharg and control its operations; we have two Marine Expeditionary Forces in the theater and could accomplish that fairly quickly. However, Kharg is not strategically placed for Strait traffic; it's much further north. We might do better by seizing Larak itself and the Abu Masa group, which give the IRGC strategic positioning to harass traffic in the Strait, but all of these scenarios put US boots on the ground, and Trump is reluctant to make that call. For now, anyway.
Until then, Trump still plans to punish these attacks when they take place, but I'd bet on those attacks targeting the IRGC's positions on Larak and Abu Masa islands:
The U.S. will respond to the overnight Iranian missile attack on American forces, President Trump told Fox News.
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 31, 2026
"We're going to hit them hard. There will be a response."@treyyingst https://t.co/L92cuoDZk0 pic.twitter.com/DJqFEH2pSR
Trump finally appears comfortable with the siege as the prime strategy, as a means to force the IRGC's collapse or at least its desperation. Feed a cold, starve Vahidi. It also appears to be working, and this level of desperation indicates that it may be working even better than we think.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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