The smart money hasn't been that smart about Joe Biden's future in the White House. 

After the debate people were betting that Biden was done. After he hung on despite so much grief from his fellow Democrats, the betting swung back to Biden sticking it out. 

The bets are swinging back, with good reason. 

CNN's Van Jones: "A bullet couldn't stop Trump. A virus just stopped Biden... The Democrats are coming apart. The Republicans are coming together." pic.twitter.com/kcWNUjcPOD

— Bobby LaValley (@Bobby_LaVallley) July 18, 2024

Biden has been getting so much pressure from his fellow Democrats--Adam Schiff, House members, Chuck Schumer, and in a meeting with Jeffrey Katzenberg that he suddenly got COVID. 

Joe Biden Would Reevaluate Campaign if Doctors Flagged Medical Issue : President Joe Biden said Tuesday he would reevaluate his candidacy for president if his doctors told him he had a medical issue.

The post Joe Biden Would Reevaluate Campaign if… https://t.co/CL7wj7FUk3 pic.twitter.com/GDrUMswPmr

— Janie Johnson - America is Exceptional (@jjauthor) July 18, 2024

Yes, that is almost certainly an excuse. It is quite convenient that right after he told BET that he wouldn't leave unless a medical emergency required him to, and suddenly he is sick. 

https://t.co/WFsNST3oA0

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 18, 2024

The momentum has been entirely against Biden, despite a few quiet days post-assassination attempt. 

Exclusive reporting by ABC's @jonkarl: During Schumer's one-on-one meeting with Biden on Saturday, "Schumer forcefully made the case that it would be better for Biden, better for the Democratic party, and better for the country if he were to bow out." pic.twitter.com/eI08ychFt8

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) July 17, 2024

I was shocked at how quickly the conversation turned back to Biden's decrepitude. I assumed that the events of Saturday would put the issue to bed, but the panic in the Democrat Party is stronger than even the fear that anybody who runs against Trump is a dead man (or woman) walking. 

It's not the presidential election they are worried about anymore. It is about losing everything. 

BREAKING: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer met one on one with President Biden. The conversation was about the state of the race and no staff was in the room. NBC News' Ryan Nobles reports. pic.twitter.com/vir1Girzj9

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) July 18, 2024

Biden is finally wondering if it is time to go. Which, I assume, is partly because he has been out of Washington and, hence, not solely surrounded by the Biden Crime Family. Obviously, there is an attempt to pierce the bubble, and it may be working. 

https://t.co/47ERzd2XZb pic.twitter.com/Z1Qxo8lkqV

— tree hugging s*ster 🎃 (@WelbornBeege) July 18, 2024

Now that Biden is back in D.C. the war between the insiders and the outsiders will resume at a higher level. Because he is "home" in the White House Hunter and Jill will be able to make their pitches without interference, but the seed has been planted in Biden's remaining brains that he might have to go. 

Good grief - one can dislike Trump but still understand there's a world of difference between a premeditated attempted assass*nation on a former president and Biden randomly catching covid. https://t.co/n4DbQBipiz

— Jean (@queens_parents) July 18, 2024

Personally, I have no bets left. This is now outside the realm of strategy and down to personalities. Either way, I will be somewhat surprised.