Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, a Republican, is not running for re-election. Baker is a very popular two-term governor. Republicans hope to hold on to that seat in deep blue Massachusetts. As primary voters go to the polls today, Republican voters have a choice between a Trump endorsee and the guy Trump didn’t endorse. Will Trump’s record of success in picking candidates hold?
The primary race is between a former state lawmaker (backed by Trump) and a more centrist businessman.
Former state Rep. Geoff Diehl is a loyal Trump supporter who agrees with Trump that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen. “Geoff is a proven fighter who successfully pushes back on the ultraliberal extremists,” Trump said as he praised Diehl on a primary eve tele-rally. “He’ll rule your state with an iron fist, and he’ll do what has to be done,” the former president added. Diehl ran against Democrat Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2018 and lost that race by almost 25 points.
Chris Doughty is the other Republican candidate in the primary race. He is a first-time candidate and a Harvard Business School graduate who is largely self-funding his campaign. Today as he spoke to a reporter at his polling place, he sounded a lot like Trump himself.
“I’m a job creator, and that’s a big part of what a governor does…to help the economy grow and to make sure everybody has not just jobs, but good jobs,” Doughty told reporters on Tuesday as he voted.
Jobs and the roaring economy that was created during the Trump administration is a large part of Trump’s domestic agenda legacy. Trump proved that an outsider with real-life business experience is a smart choice to lead economic policy. Why would Trump choose Diehl, a politician, over Doughty, a fresh face and businessman? Is it because Diehl feeds Trump’s ego over the 2020 presidential election results?
Voter support is aligning about as you might suspect. Doughty is supported by more moderate and traditional Republicans. Diehl is supported by more conservative and populist voters. Doughty doesn’t have Trump’s endorsement but he does have Governor Chris Sununu’s (R-NH) support. Like Sununu, conservative talk show host Howie Carr is concerned about electability. It is a mistake for Republican voters to only focus on today’s race and not on the race the primary winner will face in November against the Democrat candidate. Carr is a longtime Trump supporter. Voters need to be encouraged to look at the big picture.
Having a great time with @HowieCarrShow at Gannon’s in Hyannis! @95wxtk #magov #mapoli #massgop pic.twitter.com/bQ9jzPcsOy
— Chris Doughty (@chrisforma) September 5, 2022
Governor Charlie Baker, a Trump critic, has not made an endorsement in the GOP primary.
Diehl won the Republican endorsement by gaining nearly three-quarters of delegates at the state party convention. That’s impressive but the Democrat candidate in November will be a substantial challenge. She is the two-term Attorney General Maura Healey. The Democrat gubernatorial primary was uncontested. Healey checks some important boxes for Democrat voters – Healey is the state’s first openly gay chief executive and she would be the first woman elected governor in Massachusetts.
— Diehl For MA (@DiehlForMA) September 1, 2022
Will a Trump-endorsed Republican win in the general election? Or would the Republican with the support of both a popular conservative talk show host and the moderate Republican governor of a neighboring state have a better chance to defeat Healey in November?
Republicans have to learn to play the long game in politics. Democrats know how to do it. They proved it when they decided to rally around Joe Biden in 2020 and made him president. They changed Biden’s narrative that he was going to be a three-time presidential candidate loser into the man who would heal the nation and unite all Americans after four years of the bad Orange Man. Democrats chose the harmless-looking old geezer to go up against Trump. They kept him in his basement, using the pandemic as an excuse, and no one really expected anything out of Biden. He was looked upon as a placeholder. Voters bought it.
Massachusetts will not elect a populist, conservative Republican as governor. Voters will look for a Romney kind of Republican. Republican voters in Massachusetts are not the same as those in Texas or Georgia.
Trump has had a lot of success in his candidate endorsements, especially in gubernatorial primaries. According to Ballotpedia, Trump’s endorsement record in regular endorsements is 205-17, 92%. In special elections, Trump is 2-0. That’s really good by anyone’s standards. I’ll be interested to see who comes out on top in today’s Massachusetts primary.
Trump’s gubernatorial endorsement fails include Georgia. His endorsement of Perdue over Kemp in Georgia because of how Kemp handled the 2020 election ballot count results in Georgia is a prime example of his ego overriding the practical choice of who is most electable. Kemp is on track to beat his Democrat challenger, Stacey Abrams, again. It’s very important for Republicans to win gubernatorial races. Let’s hope Massachusetts Republicans keep their gubernatorial seat.
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