Last night the AP called enough House races that the GOP was at 217 seats, just one shy of the 218 needed to retake the House. There are currently four races where the GOP still has a lead and any one of them could be called today to seal the deal. But the one where the counting is furthest along is Colorado-3. That’s the seat currently held by Rep. Lauren Boebert.

As of now, Boebert is leading Democratic challenger Adam Frisch by 1,122 votes. It’s a narrow margin but the good news for Boebert is that nearly all of the votes have been counted. The NY Times says >95 of the votes are counted but NBC News says 99% have been counted. That makes it sound like we should have a call any moment but according to reports today, there won’t be an update until tomorrow.

…new tallies will likely have to wait until Wednesday, the deadline for counties to receive ballots from military and overseas voters.

The next round of updated votes won’t just include those ballots, though — each county has kept some uncounted ballots in reserve to mix with whatever it receives through Wednesday in order to keep those results as anonymous as possible.

“Our county clerks and bipartisan poll watching teams are taking great care with counting every vote, and we must be patient as we allow this process to play out,” Frisch said in a statement to CPR.

So there are some uncounted ballots and some military and overseas ballots and finally there are cured ballots, i.e. ballots where voters have to verify a signature in order for them to be counted. The Denver Post is reporting this amounts to “hundreds” of as yet uncounted ballots but I have no idea if that means 500 or 5,000. The bottom line is that we’ll probably have a big drop tomorrow which may be enough to finally call this race.

Meanwhile, Adam Frisch is traveling to Washington for member orientation in case he wins.

Adam Frisch is still more than a thousand votes behind U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert in the race for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District seat, but he’s attending orientation for new members of Congress in case a wave of upcoming ballots reverses their positions.

That razor-thin margin is expected to remain until county clerks throughout the sprawling district report hundreds more ballots later this week. Those ballots include votes sent from out-of-state and others that required additional signature verification before they could be counted.

Whether the remaining ballots will be enough for Frisch to take the lead, however, remains unclear. His spokeswoman Madeleine Schmidt said the Democrat’s team is working with voters to fix, or cure, ballots with signature issues in an effort to squeeze every last vote for Frisch out of the district.

And just in case Frisch is able to sneak ahead in the numbers yet again — which would likely push the race toward a recount — he flew to Washington, D.C., for orientation, Schmidt confirmed.

The recount in Colorado would kick in if the gap between the two candidates was less than 0.5% of the leading candidate’s vote. So right now, Boebert has 162,040 votes. One percent would be 1,620 votes and half of that (0.5%) would be 810 votes. Since Boebert leads by 1,122 votes she’s outside that threshold for now.

As mentioned above there are still three other races where GOP candidates are leading that could tip the House to GOP control. California 3, California 22 and California 27. In CA-3 Kevin Kiley leads by almost 10,000 votes with just 53% of the vote cast. In CA-22 Rep. David Valadao leads by just over 3,000 votes with 54% of the vote counted. And in CA-27 Rep. Mike Garcia leads by over 13,000 votes with 65% of the votes counted. All three of those races were updated at the end of the day yesterday so I expect there will be another update tonight. Maybe one of those will be significant enough for the AP to call the race. If so that will be the one that puts the GOP over the top.

Any additional wins after 218 just give the party some breathing room. In addition to the four races mentioned above there are two races (CA-13 and CA-47) where the Democrats have narrow leads of a couple thousand votes. So it’s still possible one of those could flip.

Just minutes ago the AP called another close race for Democrat Yadira Caraveo. That leaves just 12 uncalled races overall. Hopefully a few more of those will be decided this evening.

BREAKING: Democrat Yadira Caraveo wins election to U.S. House in Colorado's 8th Congressional District. #APracecall at 12:37 p.m. MST. https://t.co/2nlgpjzI1K

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 15, 2022