Last Saturday an editor for Cook Political Report decided David Valadao would win in California’s 21st Congressional District, creating another pickup for the GOP. But the Associated Press still hadn’t called the race. Finally today they did:
BREAKING: Republican David Valadao wins election to U.S. House in California's 21st Congressional District, beating incumbent Rep. TJ Cox. #APracecall at 10:32 a.m. PST. #Election2020 #CAelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 27, 2020
Based on the AP race calls, the GOP is currently at +9 in the House but that doesn’t include several races in which Democrats have already conceded. In particular, Democrat Max Rose conceded to Nicole Malliotakis in the NY-11 race more than a week ago. So the GOP will be at +10 once the AP catches up.
That really only leave 3 races where the result is still in doubt. In Iowa 2 the race is down to single digits. Today the AP reports GOP candidate Mariannette Miller-Meeks has an 8 vote lead with one district left to finish a recount:
Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks held a lead of eight votes over Democrat Rita Hart out of more than 394,400 cast, with recount boards in all but one of the district’s 24 counties reporting their results. Miller-Meeks is trying to flip a second congressional seat in Iowa for Republicans this cycle…
Only Clinton County — where Hart lives on a Wheatland farm and served as an educator and state senator — is yet to report.
Clinton’s recount board has already reviewed most of its ballots, with Hart so far netting a single vote, said county auditor Eric Van Lancker. The board will return Saturday morning to finish recounting the last 5,000 to 6,000 absentee ballots, he said.
If Miller-Meeks holds on it will be another GOP pickup.
There’s another tight race in CA-25 where GOP incumbent Mike Garcia is holding on to a narrow lead of around 400 votes. If he holds on that race will be a hold for the GOP.
Finally, in NY-22 GOP challenger Claudia Tenney has apparently fallen behind by a dozen votes:
BREAKING: sources on both Dem & GOP sides confirm that the final counts submitted by all 8 counties in #NY22 to NY Supreme Court Justice Scott DelConte will show Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) *ahead* of Claudia Tenney (R) by either 12 or 13 votes. Wow.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 25, 2020
That’s another incredibly close race and one where Tenney led the election day totals by nearly 30,000 votes. For it to come down to a loss by a dozen votes would be heartbreaking. We’ll have to wait and see a bit longer what happens.
So when all is said and done the GOP will almost certainly be +10 and still could be +11. This puts the GOP in a good position to win back the House in two years.