Lula’s Victory Is Surprising Because He Has So Little to Offer Brazil

On the eve of the second round of Brazil's presidential election, every major research institute believed that Flávio Bolsonaro would win. Even Lula voters were pessimistic. Things began to change when the Workers' Party (PT) asked the Superior Electoral Court to extend the voting time by two hours (that is, until 7 p.m.) in Salvador and nearby cities, arguing that Bolsonarist mayors had made it harder for residents to vote by reducing the number of buses. This is not an unusual accusation, and the higher courts are generally seen as favorable to Lula. (Even though the president of the electoral court happens to be a justice appointed by Bolsonaro, his decisions were disregarded by fellow members.) Notably, Salvador votes heavily for Lula.

But the transit difficulties were caused—at least in part—by the activity of Lula’s partisans themselves. Trade unionists glued PT stickers on buses while they were still in the garage; because such advertising would constitute a crime under Brazil's election laws, city workers had to remove the stickers before the buses could start their routes. By 10:30 a.m., traffic was more or less back to normal.

When the PT used this to ask the courts for an extension, Flávio’s campaign did the same, arguing that some southern cities whose voters tilt toward him should have their polling hours extended to account for weather-related issues. The surprise came when the PT went further, and asked not the Electoral Court, but the Supreme Court, to keep the polls open until 7 p.m for the entire country. The Supreme Court, operating under an unaudited system, picked Cristiano Zanin, Lula’s former personal attorney, to decide the matter. And Zanin ruled as his former client wanted. (The decision also created ambiguity around voting machines: Some machines had already been sealed in anticipation of a 5 p.m. closure, and the Court’s decision did not allow these to be reopened). 

Following this decision, Lula won the election, to the amazement of many Brazilians. What will happen next is unclear. It is worth noting that Brazil elected an opposition-controlled Senate with a penchant for impeaching justices. And we may also see appeals for help from outside Brazil, since Bolsonaro supporters are unlikely to get redress in their own country.