Carville Warns Dems: 'The Ice Pick Cometh'

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

Consider this the wrap-up to what likely will be the final day of whatever honeymoon Kamala Harris has. The Obamas literally phoned in an endorsement this morning, which means that unless Democrats dig up the corpse of FDR, the potential sugar highs from endorsements have come to an end. Harris may get brief news-cycle boosts from her Veepstakes pick and at the convention, but this introductory week held the most real potential to change the race from the hole Joe Biden dug.

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And according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten last night, that potential went largely unrealized. And in fact, Trump had a pretty good week -- again:

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yeah, you mentioned a very tight race, and I will say absolutely a very tight race here. But here's the thing to keep in mind. I think there's all this talk of all this Harris momentum. Maybe there's a slight bit of momentum, but I would argue it's actually a little bit smaller than folks think.

So, pre-Biden dropping out, look, Trump was up by two over Harris. We look at the polls now this week, what do we see? We see Trump is up by one over Harris. The massive change is actually the change of candidates because prior to Biden dropping out, he trailed by six points among these -- in these exact same polls that we look at here, where Harris was only trailing by two points. So, the movement is actually from Biden to Harris, not actually Harris herself necessarily moving.

More than that, there's a bit of a warning side in the polling data for Democrats. All this talk of Harris coming in and the Harris momentum, perhaps ignores a little bit that Trump has a little bit of momentum of his own. So, look at this, a favorable view of Trump. These are all polls taken at the Republican National Convention. ABC News/Ipsos, 40%. That's the highest ever favorable rating Trump had in that poll. How about Quinnipiac? Forty-six percent. That's the highest for this pollster. How about the New York Times, the highest in this particular poll?

So, the fact is, yes, Harris has come in perhaps with a bit of momentum, but Trump is doing polling the best he ever has in the minds of the American public, at least according to these three pollsters.

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If you want to see what Enten means, RCP has begun graphing its Trump v Harris polling average results:

The left side of the line shows Trump against Biden for the three months prior to Biden's withdrawal. After the line, it plots the H2H numbers against Harris. I'm not sure why RCP bothered to do this rather than just graph all of Harris' numbers; pollsters began testing out this matchup before the debate and especially afterward.

Two things are apparent in this graph. First, Biden didn't really crater all that much from the debate. On June 27, the day of the debate, Biden's RCP average was 45.1, and it bottomed out on July 3 at 43.6. By the time Biden withdrew, though, he'd recovered most of that lost ground to have an RCP average of 44.8. Trump went from 46.6 on June 27 to 47.9 on July 21, but much of that gain came after the assassination attempt and then the GOP convention. 

Second: Harris only negligibly improves on Biden, even in the honeymoon week. On June 27, before the debate, Biden was 1.3 points behind Trump in the RCP average. Trump had a 3.1-point lead on Sunday, when Biden withdrew. Now, at the end of what should be the friendliest news cycle Harris will ever get, Trump still leads by 1.7 points -- slightly better than his lead when the debate aired. 

And while the Protection Racket Media will still do its best to cover for Kamala, those honeymoon news cycles are coming to an end. James Carville warned Democrats that they're far too giddy about the success of wishing Grandpa Joe to the cornfield, especially given the radical nature of their newly anointed replacement and the very long trail of videos and policy positions she has. "The ice pick cometh," Carville tells the MSNBC panel, and in fact it has already begun to chip away at Harris:

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And it won't just be attack ads that do damage. Media outlets may be trying to bury Harris' assignment as 'border czar' these days, but CNN dropped a bomb on her today over her Defund the Police demagoguery -- and there's more where that came from. Personnel issues that largely dropped off the radar screen when the Biden team sidelined Harris three years ago will also make a return. In fact, my friend Charlie Spiering wrote a book about Harris' radical career and incompetent executive track record, Amateur Hour, and offers a look back at the latter in the Daily Mail today:

For, behind the recent public self-branding of Harris as a kindly, jovial 'Momala', she has earned a nasty reputation as an alleged 'soul-destroying' workplace 'bully'.

Only four of the initial 71 staffers hired by Harris during her first year in office still remain in a job. The rest either quit or were fired, according to analysis by non-partisan watchdog Open The Books.

That translates to a 92 percent staff turnover rate – and, say critics, is a likely sign that the issues on Team Harris have more to do with her than anyone else.

During research for my recent Harris biography ('Amateur Hour', published in January), the horror stories I heard from many of her former employees and read about in numerous reports – shocked me.

As far back as the 2010s, when Harris served as California's Attorney General, she was allegedly known for running a 'toxic' workplace.

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And now that Harris has to take the front seat in a presidential campaign, she will have to do the kind of high-profile interviews that turned into disasters for her and Biden in 2021. Harris has nowhere to hide from that level of scrutiny; even with friendly media, Harris turns into a word-salad shooter and speaks in circles when pressed on specific policy. Has she improved? No one knows, in large part because Democrats rushed to anoint her rather than have her compete for the nomination at an open convention.

Will that backfire? Probably! And when it does, CNN's Kasie Hunt warned two days ago, Democrat leadership will have to explain why they tossed out democracy in favor of an elitist Anointing -- first of Biden, and then Harris. Click over to RCP to watch

And finally, Carville sounds pessimistic because he knows how poor Harris' political instincts are. How poor are they?, I hear you ask. Harris still has this tweet live in her feed, more than two years after Jesse Smollett got convicted a second time for concocting the "hoax" that Harris called "a modern day lynching." It's not just bad political instincts, either -- Harris just looks stupid. Someone buy Carville the strongest Southern whiskey available. And take away his ice pick. 

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