File this under Things That Could Have Been Said Last September. Or even Things That Should Have Been Said in 2019.
Now that polls have soured -- somewhat -- for Democrats, suddenly they want to dump the incumbent they deliberately cocooned from a legitimate primary challenge. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries couldn't convince Joe Biden to withdraw. Can his old boss walk Biden out the door ... again?
According to the Washington Post, Barack Obama has begun to push, indirectly for now:
Former president Barack Obama has told allies in recent days that President Biden’s path to victory has greatly diminished and he thinks the president needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy, according to multiple people briefed on his thinking.
Obama has spoken with Biden only once since the debate, and he has been clear in his conversations with others that the future of Biden’s candidacy is a decision for the president to make. He has emphasized that his concern is protecting Biden and his legacy, and has pushed back against the idea that he alone can influence Biden’s decision-making process.
Behind the scenes, Obama has been deeply engaged in conversations about the future of Biden’s campaign, taking calls from many anxious Democrats, including former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and has shared his views about the president’s challenges, according to people with knowledge of the calls, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
That would definitely put the entire Democrat Party establishment against Biden. Obama may have started out as an outsider, but his economic and foreign-policy teams dominate the Biden administration, so much so that many have speculated that Obama's essentially running his third term with Biden as a puppet. That's too glib -- Biden's incompetence and utter lack of strategic vision is all his own -- but even Biden clearly relied on the Obama establishment the last three-plus years.
So what influence would Obama have to pressure Biden into a withdrawal that Schumer and Pelosi don't have? If Obama decides enough is enough, he could start arranging key resignations to put more pressure on Biden. That's a dangerous game, though; it would leave the Biden administration rudderless and more prone to an election-turning disaster.
On the other hand, it could backfire. Rumors abound about resentment among the Bidens over Obama's role in keeping Biden out of the 2016 election, keeping Biden out of an election he believes he could have won over Trump in that cycle. Then, as now, Obama convinced Biden that only Hillary Clinton could beat Trump, which turned out to be ... a bad call. There were frictions behind the scenes even before that, mainly due to personal style, but also over a frustration with Biden's endless capacity for gaffery.
In other words, Obama may not be the best choice for a long walk down Pennsylvania Avenue, Howard Baker-style, to tell the president it's time to go. In fact, an Obama intervention would likely backfire, which may be why Obama and/or his allies are leaking this to the Washington Post rather than talk directly to Biden about it.
And here's another reason why it might backfire: Biden certainly has heard the suggestions to draft Michelle Obama as a rescue nominee to avoid an open-convention meltdown in Chicago. Biden would likely suspect motives of personal benefit for any such "advice" Obama might give him to exit the race.
Most of all, though, Biden still sees himself as the only Democrat to beat Trump and the only one in position to do it again. For those reasons, as well as for financial reasons related to Biden Inc, I still predict that Biden simply stands pat and forces Democrats to come back to him.
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