I’m sticking with what I wrote a few days ago. No matter what the polls say, no matter how much Democrat Jaime Harrison raises, no matter how visibly terrified Graham appears, this seat is safely Republican. It’ll be close-ish on Election Day — Graham by four or something like that — but Trump’s not going to lose South Carolina. And if Trump doesn’t lose South Carolina, Graham’s not losing South Carolina. There just aren’t enough pro-Trump/anti-Lindsey ticket-splitters.

But.

He really does look a little shaken in the clip below. How often do you see a politician with a national profile on TV begging for money like a televangelist so that God doesn’t call him home?

What he says about being destroyed financially is true, too. It’s particularly true in his race but true across the board of late:

At the same time, Democrats argue that the renewed interest has bolstered their own fundraising, pointing to the more than $200 million that ActBlue, the party’s online fundraising platform for small-dollar donations, has raised since Ginsburg’s death Friday…

Additionally, the issue has inspired many voters to open up their wallets, they argue. Case in point: A joint-fundraising account overseen by Crooked Media, a liberal outfit founded by Obama White House alumni, raised $18.5 million in less than 72 hours after Ginsburg’s death — all for 13 Democratic candidates in key battleground states benefiting from the “Get Mitch Fund,” which uses the ActBlue portal to steer its donations.

The GOP will cut into that advantage after Trump announces Barrett’s nomination on Saturday but it’ll be an exceptionally heavy lift to erase it fully. Graham estimates in the clip that Harrison has raised $6 million since last Friday, which would be more than half of his already impressive $10 million haul during the entire month of August. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s more than that, or if Trump’s Saturday announcement kickstarts another round of Democratic giving as the attacks on Barrett begin.

Graham has an ace in the hole, though. He’s the head of the Judiciary Committee and as such he’ll have many, many opportunities to grandstand on camera on Barrett’s behalf after hearings begin in October. That’s going to put him front and center before South Carolina voters in the biggest possible spotlight. If he impresses them, Republican who have been holding out on supporting him might finally grudgingly come around. Remember how angry he got at Democratic antics during the Kavanaugh hearings two years ago? I can’t even imagine the histrionics he might produce this time, knowing that his political career may (but probably doesn’t) depend on a base-pleasing performance.

There’s a silver lining in all this for Republicans too. If I’m right that Graham’s seat is safe because Trump will drag him over the finish line, Democratic donors are making a costly mistake in flooding Harrison’s campaign with cash. There are lots of winnable races across the country for Team Blue right now: They’re leading in Maine, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, even Iowa, where Joni Ernst is suddenly in real trouble. The Montana Senate race is within two points in the RCP average. Both open Senate seats in Georgia, a purpler state than South Carolina, are showing only narrow leads for the GOP. Dems spending gobs of money to oust Graham in a long longshot bid in SC when there are literally eight races that are more winnable is clear proof that political donations are an emotional, not a rational, exercise. He’s exactly right in the clip about why Harrison is rolling in dough: The left hates his guts for having become such an abject Trump crony and they’re willing to spend anything to make him sweat. I wonder how they’ll feel when he wins anyway and then Ernst wins by a point or whatever because her own opponent just didn’t have the bucks to nose past her.

I’m almost inclined to think Graham is offering himself as a decoy, making it appear that he’s more vulnerable than he really is in order to draw Democrats even deeper into his race and away from others. But nah. He seems legit scared.