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FiveThirtyEight

Nate Silver: Republicans now favored to win the Senate

2022 midterm elections

Nate Silver: Republicans now favored to win the Senate

Nate Silver: Senate control looks like an even bet to me

2022 midterm

Nate Silver: Senate control looks like an even bet to me

If the polls this year are as bad as they were in 2020, Republicans are favored to win the Senate

FiveThirtyEight

If the polls this year are as bad as they were in 2020, Republicans are favored to win the Senate

Er, don't panic but the generic ballot is now tied

Abortion

Er, don't panic but the generic ballot is now tied

Two new forecasts: Democrats favored to hold the Senate?

2024

Two new forecasts: Democrats favored to hold the Senate?

Wait, is Biden's job approval rebounding (a little)?

approval

Wait, is Biden's job approval rebounding (a little)?

Cratering: New poll puts Biden approval below 40%

Economy

Cratering: New poll puts Biden approval below 40%

Here's the thing of the day: The obligatory "Tapper and every other sentient being school Joy Reid on meaning of 538" post

2020 Elections

Here's the thing of the day: The obligatory "Tapper and every other sentient being school Joy Reid on meaning of 538" post

Just 43% of young black voters trust congressional Dems to do what's best for black people

adults

Just 43% of young black voters trust congressional Dems to do what's best for black people

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FiveThirtyEight: You'd better believe Trump can win Minnesota

2016 election

FiveThirtyEight: You'd better believe Trump can win Minnesota

FiveThirtyEight debuts election forecast: Trump has the same chance of winning now as he did in November 2016

2020

FiveThirtyEight debuts election forecast: Trump has the same chance of winning now as he did in November 2016

Nate Silver: Yes, Trump can still win this race

2020

Nate Silver: Yes, Trump can still win this race

FiveThirtyEight: What gives with Trump's approval-ratings boost?

approval ratings

FiveThirtyEight: What gives with Trump's approval-ratings boost?

Experts polled two weeks ago badly underestimated how many U.S. coronavirus infections there would be now

cases

Experts polled two weeks ago badly underestimated how many U.S. coronavirus infections there would be now

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Biden now a 99% favorite to win the Democratic nomination

2020

Biden now a 99% favorite to win the Democratic nomination

Bernie now projected to have an all but insurmountable delegate lead after Super Tuesday

Bernie Sanders

Bernie now projected to have an all but insurmountable delegate lead after Super Tuesday

Guess who Stacey Abrams predicts to win the 2040 election?

FiveThirtyEight

Guess who Stacey Abrams predicts to win the 2040 election?

Two new polls: Solid majorities support calling new witnesses at Trump's impeachment trial

americans

Two new polls: Solid majorities support calling new witnesses at Trump's impeachment trial

NBC poll: Dead heat on impeachment as party-line trenches harden

Donald Trump

NBC poll: Dead heat on impeachment as party-line trenches harden

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Trump: The fact that only 25% want me impeached is pretty good given the scope of this witch hunt; Update: 51% want removal, says ... Fox News

FiveThirtyEight

Trump: The fact that only 25% want me impeached is pretty good given the scope of this witch hunt; Update: 51% want removal, says ... Fox News

Trump's average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017

approval

Trump's average approval rating reaches highest point since February 2017

Gallup: Trump's job approval bounces back to 44% after decline during shutdown

bounce

Gallup: Trump's job approval bounces back to 44% after decline during shutdown

Forecast: GOP now more likely to have *at least* 54 Senate seats next year than to lose its majority

FiveThirtyEight

Forecast: GOP now more likely to have *at least* 54 Senate seats next year than to lose its majority

Statistician: After researching gun violence, I no longer believe in gun control

control

Statistician: After researching gun violence, I no longer believe in gun control

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battleground

Reuters: Battleground states have suddenly tightened up

Elections

Nate Silver ponders how he got Trump so wrong

2016

Chart of the day: Why Christie's probably going nowhere in the primaries

FiveThirtyEight

Uh oh: 60% of Intel employees who donated in Prop 8 debate supported banning gay marriage

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