There are a couple of new polls out that suggest Trump is doing well in Michigan or, alternatively, that Harris is not doing well there. First up is this Quinnipiac Poll of the rust belt which has Trump up in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In Michigan, 50 percent of likely voters support Trump, 47 percent support Harris, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support.

This compares to September when Harris received 50 percent support, Trump received 45 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2 percent support...

In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump receives 51 percent support and Harris receives 47 percent support.

In Wisconsin the poll had similar results.

In Wisconsin, 48 percent of likely voters support Trump, 46 percent support Harris, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver each receive 1 percent support.

The good news for Harris is that the same poll has her up 49-46 in Pennsylvania and that's with Jill Stein taking 2%. The margin of error in the Michigan poll was 3.1% and in the PA poll it was 2.6%.

The othe new poll making some news comes from the Arab American Institute. It found a surprising reversal in who is winning among Arab Americans in Michigan.

Israel’s bloody war in Gaza has eroded support among a once reliable constituency with a major presence in must-win Michigan.

While Arab Americans voted nearly 60 percent for Joe Biden in 2020, with Donald Trump garnering just 35 percent of their support, the new poll finds Trump winning the Arab American vote 42 to 41 percent over Harris. The picture among likely voters is even worse, with Trump leading 46-42, pointing to a politically perilous enthusiasm gap.

It's a small poll but the results seem to jibe with a trend others have been talking about. The NY Times just reported this on Monday.

The discontent is palpable on the ground in Michigan, which has more than 300,000 residents with Middle Eastern or North African ancestry, though high-quality polling on Arab American and Muslim voters is scant. In nearly two dozen interviews this weekend with a range of these voters across levels of religious observance and familial countries of origin, just two said they were voting for her.

James Zogby, president of the Arab American Instituted, told Rolling Stone that unlike previous polls where Arab Americans mostly had the same concerns as other Americans, this new poll was different.

In the poll we just finished, this is the first time where Gaza or Palestinian issues were in the top three. And among Democrats, it was the top issue. It crosses all the lines. It’s Lebanese, and Egyptians, and Palestinians. It’s also Muslims and Christians. It’s the recent immigrants and the ones born here. When you get numbers that high, it impacts the vote in a significant way. This poll showed that people who were historically Democratic voters were either not enthusiastic about voting at all, or some of them were going to vote for Trump. It was the first time we had actually Trump in the lead, 42 to 41...

The reaction I’m getting, when I go around the country and talk to people, is they want to punish Democrats. That’s not a smart political move, but that’s what people are feeling. And I don’t have an argument to make because they haven’t given us arguments to make.

Zogby did suggest that some of that vote shift toward Trump was pretty soft. He suggested if Harris made a bold statement about a ceasefire or something else, she might reclaim a percentage of those voters. 

So I guess that's something to look for in the next week or so. If Democrats really are as nervous about Michigan as they claim to be, maybe Harris will have to do something drastic to try to stop the loss.