The Iran War Isn't Over, but Oil Traders Are Already Pricing In Peace

Oil prices plunged 15% this week as hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal fueled bearish sentiment, despite continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Friday, November 06, 2026

Oil prices are set to record one of the steepest weekly losses in recent memory, with ICE Brent sliding a hefty 15% week-on-week to $99 per barrel on expectations of US-Iran diplomatic progress and a weakening window of opportunity for the Trump administration to continue hostilities in the Middle East. Whilst talk of a global supply glut might be a little premature – after all, Iranian drone and missile attacks continue unabated in the Hormuz – the general sentiment has definitely shifted towards bearishness.

Constrained by Gulf Shipping, Aramco Slashes Asia OSPs. Saudi national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) slashed its December OSPs for all Asian grades by a uniform $2 per barrel, setting its flagship grade Arab Light at a $7 discount against Dubai/Oman, the lowest pricing level since June 2020.