Why Republicans still have the upper hand for 2022

The Democratic polling outfit Democracy Corps just did a survey of 2022 battlegrounds that confirmed for Republicans this general picture. Fully three-quarters of the GOP are Trump loyalists or Trump-aligned. As Stanley Greenberg writes in a memo about the poll, among Republicans, “the percent scoring 10, the highest level of interest in the election, has fallen from 84 to 68 percent. But Democrats’ engagement fell from 85 percent to 57 percent.” Greenberg calls the GOP base “uniquely unified and engaged.” More evidence is the boffo fundraising by the National Republican Campaign Committee so far. It raised $33.7 million in the first quarter, a bit less than the Democrats, but the Democrats have an overhang of debt. Meanwhile, GOP candidate recruitment is ahead of the pace of prior midterm cycles, whereas Democrats are seeing worrisome retirements. It’s not as though there’s a high bar for the GOP. Republicans need to flip only six seats in the House, when in the post-World War II era the president’s party has lost on average 27 seats in midterm elections.