Will James Talarico win the first statewide election victory for Texas Democrats in 32 years? Analysts insist that the Austin progressive, still on his mother's checking account, has the muscle to win the Lone Star State against Ken Paxton, who has already won three statewide elections. His campaign cash advantage and the disaffection of John Cornyn's voters will be enough to give Talarico a path to the US Senate.
Or so analysts keep insisting. On the other hand, the fundamentals on the ground in Texas, especially among black voters, indicate a far different outcome. Former Kamala Harris staffer Ashley Etienne told Meet the Press this weekend that the only way for a Democrat to win a statewide election is for the black vote to "overperform." After visiting Houston, Etienne isn't feeling anything close to that level of enthusiasm for Talarico, in part because Talarico still hasn't shown them the money:
Former Kamala Harris staffer Ashley Etienne says far-Left Democrat James Talarico is underperforming with Black Democrats:
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 23, 2026
"The only way you win [Texas] as a Democrat is if you overperform with black voters...they are concerned that there's mild enthusiasm among black voters." pic.twitter.com/EL4diFLe6b
“Listen, my home state of Texas, we feel incredibly encouraged for two reasons,” Ashley Etienne, formerly the communications director for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, told “Meet the Press” host Kristen Welker on Sunday. “But the challenge is: the only way you win the state of Texas as a Democrat is if you overperform with Black voters.”
“I just came back from Houston last night, meeting with operatives on the ground and state elected officials. They are concerned that there’s mild enthusiasm among black voters and that this $25 million that Talarico promised he was going to spend over a month ago has yet to start to flow,” she continued.
Wait ... what? Talarico supposedly has as much as $50 million on hand. His campaign promised to spend half of that in the black community almost exactly a month ago. Talarico has stepped up his pandering to black voters in the meantime, most recently in his mind-boggling decision to weigh in on the Karmelo Anthony appeal before evidence emerged of Anthony's criminal record and malevolent streak. Talarico has upped the ante, literally, with these voters, and he hasn't yet shown them the money?
Etienne says no one in Houston has seen evidence of it, and that Talarico's money advantage is about to go Tango Uniform anyway:
“The investments aren’t there yet. And then you couple that with the fact that Elon Musk said he’s going to spend nearly $200 million on these races, and Texas is a huge target for that. And you’ve got a problem with black voters in Texas: you’ve got 34% of black men voting for Donald Trump. So if you’re going to wait until Labor Day to start campaigning with black voters, you’re playing to lose.”
Donald Trump will be in Texas on Thursday for a rally and fundraiser for Paxton, too. His MAGA Inc PAC has over $400 million in cash even without Musk's pledge to kick in half as much directly to Republican campaigns. Musk has a particular interest in defeating Talarico, as the NY Post pointed out last week:
Elon Musk is likely to shell out nine-figure sums to help Republicans fend off Democrats in this year’s midterm elections — particularly in Texas, where GOP Senate hopeful Ken Paxton faces a massive fundraising disadvantage.
Officials briefed on the matter told Wired that Musk is expected to spend between $100 million and $200 million to boost Republicans, though the precise amount could change.
The Tesla and SpaceX boss is expected to focus his political war chest on voter turnout in competitive races, with the closely watched Texas contest between Paxton and Democrat James Talarico among the potential beneficiaries.
Democrats have tried to make Musk into a bete noire ever since he bought Twitter four years ago. On this point, though, they have a rational fear of his political intervention. Musk does a lot of business in Texas, and while members of the Senate don't have much direct impact on state business environments, Musk understands that a Talarico win in Texas might spark a political shift within the state, especially with weak-kneed Republicans in the state legislature. Musk almost certainly sees this race as a leading indicator for a potential retrenchment that will put his business interests at risk, and he will use his resources to protect against it – not to mention the necessity of blunting any progressive momentum nationwide.
There is another nugget in this report that didn't get much attention, although I noted it in a Final Word at the time:
Talarico has raised $68.6 million through June 30, more than seven times the roughly $9.2 million hauled in by Paxton’s campaign, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
The Democrat also held $21.5 million in cash at the end of June compared with just $1.8 million for Paxton, the filings showed.
That's still a big advantage for Talarico, campaign-on-campaign. However, it shows a massive burn rate that hasn't moved the needle yet even among the Texas Democrats' base, let alone the center of the state's electorate. It also suggests that the reason Talarico has not yet shown black voters the money is that he doesn't actually have $25 million to burn in relitigating the primaries against Jasmine Crockett. If that's the case, then Talarico will learn a lesson about expectation-setting and delivery in November.
Speaking of Crockett, she also insists that black voters won't turn out for Talarico. Crockett echoes Etienne about the enthusiasm gap, which has enormous implications for any Democrat running statewide in Texas:
💥NEW: Jasmine Crockett says black community isn't "EXCITED" about James Talarico💥
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) August 21, 2026
"I personally don't feel like the excitement necessarily exists within the black community ... I don't feel like they're excited!"
Crockett dominated Talarico in counties with large black… pic.twitter.com/GChJdaNUOd
Crockett dominated Talarico in counties with large black voting-age populations during the primary, according to a Reuters analysis.
Texas also happens to be the state with the largest black population in the U.S.
Talarico will need strong black turnout to have any shot at beating Ken Paxton.
Comments like this from Crockett won't help.
These comments don't help, but also notably, neither Crockett nor Colin Allred appear inclined to help as well. These are the two most prominent black Democrats in the state, and their firm choices to stay on the sidelines send a clear signal to black voters in this race. Not that it may matter much; Allred did have enthusiastic-to-overperforming support from black voters in 2024 and still lost to Ted Cruz by nine points. There is zero chance that Talarico will get that level of support from black voters, and nearly zero chance of getting replacement levels of support from anywhere else in the Texas electorate.
The only advantages Talarico has at the moment are cash and highly questionable polling. Expect both of those advantages to dissipate quickly after Labor Day, with or without Musk's contributions.
