With sugar on top, natch!

Three days ago, Iran's regime made it clear that they had no intention to negotiate in good faith to end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. After losing most of its top military leadership and a significant amount of its infrastructure to the Israeli Defense Forces, the ayatollah may have some second thoughts. 

According to multiple news outlets but first at i24 News, the regime has begun asking intermediaries such as Qatar to start cease-fire talks:

As Israeli strikes against Iran continue, Tehran has turned to diplomatic backchannels, seeking the help of regional mediators in an effort to halt the fighting and revive negotiations. 

Sources familiar with the matter tell i24NEWS that Iran has approached Oman and Qatar to act as intermediaries with the United States, hoping to broker a ceasefire that would bring an end to Israel’s military offensive.

In parallel, Saudi Arabia has also become involved in behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts, working quietly to create conditions for a de-escalation and possible resumption of talks. The multiple mediation tracks highlight the growing international concern over the ongoing conflict, which threatens to escalate further and destabilize the region.

The mullahs are casting that net wide. The president of Cyprus announced today that he was asked to act as an intermediary between Iran and Israel too:

Iran has asked Cyprus to convey "some messages" to Israel, President Nikos Christodoulides said on Sunday, as the eastern Mediterranean island appealed for restraint in a rapidly escalating crisis in the Middle East.

Christodoulides spoke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, and he has also spoken to the leaders of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Greece, his office said.

Earlier, Christodoulides told journalists Iran had asked Cyprus to convey 'some messages' to Israel but he did not say who specifically the messages were from or what they said.

Officially, Iran denied that they have asked for intervention to stop the war. Obviously, however, they can't continue to fight this war with any hope of winning. The Iranian regime has thrown everything they have in their ballistic missile program at Israel, and done some damage, but none of it strategic. They can't fly over Israel or really anywhere at the moment, and they can't send an army to fight Israel now that Hezbollah has been all but dismantled as a ground or terror force, and Hamas is bottled up in small pockets of Gaza. 

The Israelis, on the other hand, haven't even bothered to launch their own ballistic missiles. Instead, their air force has achieved air supremacy over the entire Iranian air space, and they are systematically destroying the strategic assets of the Iranian regime. The Israelis are now so confident in their air supremacy that they just started daytime sorties against these positions, especially looking at Iranian energy and munitions production:

Israel bombarded the Iranian capital with a new wave of strikes on Sunday afternoon, as both sides warned of more to come in a conflict that is rapidly expanding in scope and intensity.

The rare daytime assault came as Iran and Israel were still assessing the damage from deadly overnight attacks that left many fearful and sleepless.

As Iranian state news media outlets shared photographs and videos of damaged residential buildings and smoke billowing from the center of the capital, Tehran, Israel’s military refused to comment on what it described as “potential ongoing operations.”

Overnight, Israeli fighter jets overnight bombarded Tehran, setting the sky ablaze with flames from burning fuel reservoirs from the country’s vital energy industry, while Iran launched volleys of ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which eluded the country’s air defenses.

The Iranians may have finally realized that they are outgunned, out-moraled, and out-generaled. Their ballistic missiles are doing nothing to incentivize Israel to back off; instead, it appears to be adding to morale and justification, as in "imagine what this would have been like if Iran had a nuclear weapon." The more missiles they fire at Israel, the more the IDF's target selection keeps expanding. And the more missiles they fire, the more of their launchers keep getting put out of commission by the IDF. That terror tactic has an expiration date, and it may be coming even sooner than we thought if the Iranians are asking the Cypriots to push a cease-fire. 

The Israelis may not be all that keen on a cease-fire now, let alone trust the Iranians to negotiate in good faith for, oh, the first time ever. Benjamin Netantahyu visited the site of a ballistic strike in Bat Yam today, telling people there that Iran would pay for targeting civilians, and reminding them of the existential nature of the conflict:

"We are here because we are in an existential battle, which today is understood by every citizen of Israel," Netanyahu said.

"Think about what would happen if Iran had 20,000 missiles like this. It would be an existential threat to Israel. That is why we launched a war of salvation against a dual annihilation threat, and we are doing so with strength."

The prime minister added that Israel is "nearing a victory" against the Islamic Republic.

In other words, don't expect the Israelis to come to the table until they settle all accounts with the mullahs. 

What about Donald Trump? In a Truth Social post a few minutes ago, Trump says he still wants a deal ... once the Iranians get serious about ending enrichment:

Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal, just like I got India and Pakistan to make, in that case by using TRADE with the United States to bring reason, cohesion, and sanity into the talks with two excellent leaders who were able to quickly make a decision and STOP!  Also, during my first term, Serbia and Kosovo were going at it hot and heavy, as they have for many decades, and this long time conflict was ready to break out into WAR. I stopped it (Biden has hurt the longer term prospects with some very stupid decisions, but I will fix it, again!). Another case is Egypt and Ethiopia, and their fight over a massive dam that is having an effect on the magnificent Nile River. There is peace, at least for now, because of my intervention, and it will stay that way! Likewise, we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place. I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that’s OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!

A few hours earlier, though, Trump warned the Iranians about the folly of reprisals against US forces:

The U.S. had nothing to do with the attack on Iran, tonight. If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before. However, we can easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel, and end this bloody conflict!!!

And i24 News reports that the terms have not changed in the White House:

However, U.S. officials have made clear that Washington remains firm on its conditions: any diplomatic breakthrough would require Iran to accept a full halt to its uranium enrichment activities. “We remain committed to the talks and hope that the Iranians will come to the negotiating table soon,” a senior U.S. administration official told i24NEWS on Saturday.

That's why the Iranians are trying to talk to anyone else other than Trump about getting Israel to pause their operations. Unfortunately for the nutcase genocidal maniacs of Tehran, Netanyahu doesn't need to listen to anyone else. Or particularly wants to at the moment, either. 

Update: An interesting thought from my friend Meryl:

I wonder if Qatar will try to bribe Israel with a small hostage release now.

— Meryl Yourish 🇮🇱 (@MerylYourish) June 15, 2025

Maybe, but I don't know if Qatar wants this kind of linkage between Tehran and Hamas (and themselves) to be made so explicitly. Even if they did package that proposal, Israel isn't going to accept anything less than dismantling the nuclear facilities ar Fordow, Natanz, et cetera as a condition of a cessation. At this point, Netanyahu may demand an end to Iran's ballistic-missile production too. 

Update: Just in case anyone worries about Trump going wobbly -- even now -- he made his position clear to Michael Scherer at The Atlantic:

Trump: "I decide what America First means. For those people who say they want peace—you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon—that’s not peace.” pic.twitter.com/jqgf2cAYus

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 14, 2025

He later reiterated it more specifically in the context of US national security, in response to criticism from Tucker Carlson:

Trump told me he had not heard Carlson’s comments, and then dismissed them. He argued that the U.S. has a vital national-security interest in preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. For months before Israel’s attacks this week, Trump had privately and publicly urged Israel to give time for negotiations with Iran and not launch any attacks.

“Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, very simple. Regardless—Israel or not Israel—Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb,” Trump told me.

Indeed. Does anyone doubt that the "Great Satan" would be off the Iranian hit list if they had a nuke?

Update: How close did Iran get to a nuclear weapon? Within a few weeks at least, and possibly within days:

Ahead of its strikes on Iran, Israel discovered that the Islamic Republic’s scientists had conducted successful experiments in the design process of a nuclear weapon, bringing it weeks away from being able to produce a bomb if it chose to do so, according to a Hebrew media report Sunday.

This “golden information” was presented by intelligence officials to the political leadership before the decision was made to carry out preemptive strikes Friday, along with the concern that Israel didn’t know everything and that Tehran could be at an even more advanced stage in building a nuclear bomb than the available information showed, Army Radio reported, citing unnamed security officials. 

According to the report, Iran gathered scientists and split them into several working groups to labor in secret on components of the process of weaponizing nuclear material into an actual explosive device, beginning around the end of 2023 or the start of 2024 — shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, which sparked the ongoing war in Gaza.

That is why the IDF made sure that the leaders of those working groups all got killed in the first wave of their pre-emptive war offensive. 

Update: These were the targets for today's daylight sorties. Iran has -- or rather had -- nuclear weapons development activities in Tehran:

The Israel Defense Force has released an infographic detailing yesterday’s strikes targeting sites affiliated with the Iranian nuclear program in and around the capital of Tehran, these include Iran’s nuclear headquarters, nuclear laboratories, and facilities for the… pic.twitter.com/6qMc3kCshG

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 15, 2025

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