Did Israel find Yahya Sinwar? Only his DNA hairdresser knows for sure at this time, but the IDF believes that they likely killed him in an operation yesterday that killed two other Hamas operatives. 

No word on the hostages yet, although the IDF didn't find any at the site yet:

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar may have been killed in a strike in Gaza, the IDF announced on Thursday.

"Initial report - During IDF operations in the Gaza Strip, three terrorists were eliminated. The IDF and ISA are checking the possibility that one of the terrorists was Yahya Sinwar. At this stage, the identity of the terrorists cannot be confirmed," the IDF said.

"In the building where the terrorists were eliminated, there were no signs of the presence of hostages in the area. The forces that are operating in the area are continuing to operate with the required caution."

CNN and ABC also picked up on this news, which could spell the end of organized military resistance in Gaza. 

Hudson Institute expert Mike Doran got access to the pictures of the body that troops initially identified as Sinwar. It certainly looks like the Hamas leader, although older and more emaciated than in previous public appearances:

GRAPHIC WARNING

Photos out of Gaza on the interwebs purport to document the corpse of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Is he really dead? We’ll soon know. For early confirmation, watch for an announcement of an official period of mourning from Harvard, Columbia, and UCLA. pic.twitter.com/kgtkgNspOZ

— Mike (@Doranimated) October 17, 2024

Sinwar got extensive medical care while imprisoned in Israel for several years. They certainly have his DNA for comparison; indeed, they must have prepared for this moment since Sinwar launched the October 7 massacres. 

A "senior official" has briefed Hebrew-language media that there is a "high likelihood" it's Sinwar. That is also coming from the IDF:

גורמי ביטחון לגלי צה״ל: מעריכים בסבירות גבוהה שאכן מדובר בסינוואר, כל הסימנים מעידים על כך

— דורון קדוש | Doron Kadosh (@Doron_Kadosh) October 17, 2024

Security officials for Gali IDF: assess with high probability that it is indeed Sinwar, all the signs indicate that

So far, there has not been any official statement on where exactly this strike took place. Social media accounts claim it happened in Rafah, which might be surprising, since the IDF turned that city into a ghost town. Most of the IDF's activity has been focused on northern Gaza and Jabaliya of late. If this did happen in Rafah, it would be yet another point of embarrassment for the Biden administration, which did everything it could do to pressure Benjamin Netanyahu to leave Hamas that refuge. 

This prompts the question of whether this was just luck, or whether the IDF got actionable intel on Sinwar's location. It could be either, but 'luck' hasn't really played much into IDF or Mossad operations since the beginning of the war -- and especially over the last month. The systematic destruction of Hamas provided Israel with caches of intel data, and likely a large number of turncoats and informants. As Hamas lost its terrorist grip on power, it was only a matter of time before the IDF got actionable intel on Sinwar's true position. 

Perhaps the Israelis had a good idea where he was for a while. The wild card, though, is the hostages that Sinwar reportedly used as human shields. Did the hostages all get killed, or did Sinwar separate himself from them for some reason? Assuming this wasn't just a lucky hit during a normal operation -- still possible, of course -- the Israelis must have received some intel that Sinwar didn't have any of them close at hand.

Or, perhaps, this isn't Sinwar. Stand by for more updates.

Update: My friend and Townhall colleague Katie Pavlich has good contacts in the Israeli government, and she's hearing that it's Sinwar:

I am being told the mastermind behind October 7, Yahya Sinwar, has been eliminated

— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) October 17, 2024

Update: Is this a coincidence? Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant offered this on Twitter a few moments ago:

״וּרְדַפְתֶּ֖ם אֶת־אֹיְבֵיכֶ֑ם וְנָפְל֥וּ לִפְנֵיכֶ֖ם לֶחָֽרֶב.״

ויקרא כ״ו

נגיע לכל מחבל - ונחסל אותו. pic.twitter.com/dpDHviATyN

— יואב גלנט - Yoav Gallant (@yoavgallant) October 17, 2024

As the assessment that Israel has killed Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar grows, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant tweets, “We will reach every terrorist and eliminate them.”

Quoting the biblical book of Leviticus, Gallant adds, “You will pursue your enemies, and they will fall before you by the sword.”

I'd bet that's no coincidence. YMMV, but likely only briefly. 

Update: Also no coincidence, I'm betting:

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s office says the premier directed his military secretary to instruct the IDF to inform the families of hostages that there were no signs of harm to any hostages during the recent incident in Gaza where a terrorist strongly resembling Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was found.

The IDF is reiterating that no hostages or bodies were found in the building, at least through anonymous sources. 

Update: Israel's Channel 12 reports that an anonymous official has told them that Sinwar's death has been confirmed. Stand by for more details. 

Update: Another well-connected source reports that initial DNA testing confirms that the corpse is Yahya Sinwar. Note the location of the operation, too:

Initial DNA Testing has determined that the Leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar was Eliminated by an Israeli Strike this morning against a Hamas Site near the City of Rafah in Southern Gaza. pic.twitter.com/xwVfV6CPgJ

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2024

So it was near Rafah, or so it seems. We should hear more from the Israelis soon.

Update: Maybe it was luck after all?

Channel 12 reports that the incident in question took place yesterday and that the IDF troops operating in the area did not know that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was there.

Troops spotted several fighters enter a building and a strike was ordered against it, which collapsed the structure.

Only after Israeli soldiers arrived to inspect the damage did they realize that one of the terrorists killed strongly resembled Sinwar.

Fortune favors the well-prepared!

Update, 12:51 PM ET: Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz has officially confirmed Sinwar's death.