James Carville ... eternal optimist? Prophet? Or just a delusional fool? As Joe Biden digs in and deploys his MAD strategy to extort silence from fellow Democrats, the Ragin' Cajun tells Chris Cuomo that Biden's withdrawal is "inevitable." 

Appearing on News Nation, Carville insists that "the Democrat Party, the United States of America is up against the wall," and that an increasing chorus of demands for Biden's withdrawal will assure his exit. But will it?

The Democrats replacing Biden is an 'inevitable conclusion' according to James Carville. He poses the idea of Clinton and Obama picking the next Democrat candidate:
Carville: "It's inevitable: He will come to the conclusion. People will get the message to him. He will understand.… pic.twitter.com/YAxvNkwuIU

— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) July 9, 2024

Democrats have spent the last dozen days or so "get[ting] the message to him," and perhaps more importantly, getting the message to co-presidents Jill and Hunter Biden. What has that produced? Defiance, and threats to burn the party to the ground. Does that sound like a man who cares about the party or the country being "up against the wall," or a man who wants another four years to wield the power he craved for nearly 50 years in Washington DC?

Earlier, we looked at Benjy Sarlin's Semafor analysis of Biden's new strategy of mutually assured destruction to bluff his way out of a convention challenge. The New York Times has a similar take on Biden's plot to keep his grip on power, minus the Cold War reference but still acknowledging the existential stakes for both sides of the Democrat crisis:

President Biden’s increasingly emphatic declarations that he will not exit the presidential race are delivering an unmistakable message to potential wayward Democrats: Any criticisms going forward damage the party’s chances against Donald J. Trump.

For days, Mr. Biden has said he will remain his party’s nominee after his poor debate short of an intervention from “the Lord Almighty.” On Monday, he put that assertion into action.

It began with an open letter to congressional Democrats saying he was definitely running. It continued with a defiant call into one of his favorite cable news shows decrying the “elites” trying to shove him out. It included a midday appearance on a private video call with some of his campaign’s top financiers as well as a call into a virtual meeting on Monday evening with a bulwark of his past support: the Congressional Black Caucus.

Hmmm .. doesn't sound all that inevitable to me. And the strategy may be working. A caucus meeting this morning of House Democrats apparently felt "funereal," according to one participant who spoke with Jake Sherman. And for good reason:

INSIDE THE ROOM -- The House Democratic Caucus meeting about President Joe Biden's political standing is starting to empty out.

One House Democrat supportive of Biden told me it "felt like a funeral."

There is definitely no consensus on Biden. Lots of talk about how difficult…

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) July 9, 2024

There is definitely no consensus on Biden. Lots of talk about how difficult the situation is for Dems. 

Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) said that putting Harris atop the ticket would be setting her up for failure. 

Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) said he saw a poll recently that had Biden losing in his district. Biden won his district with 62% of the vote last time.

Takano represents CA-39, a Riverside County district that has a Cook index of D+12. Biden beat Trump in this district (before redistricting in 2022) by ten points. Gavin Newsom won it in its present form in his gubernatorial re-election in 2022 by roughly the same amount, while Alex Padilla won his Senate election by 13 points. Takano himself won the House seat by 15 points in the midterms. 

If Biden is losing CA-39, a disaster approacheth ... and right soon.

And yet, Democrats on the Hill apparently have decided that it's Biden who's inevitable, not a withdrawal. Heather Caygle reports that they've thrown in the towel on attempting to convince the Bidens to retire gracefully, and are preparing for disaster instead:

Here's the thing, Jake/Bres/I have talked to a lot of Democrats and do so quite frequently. 

I haven't talked to one who privately says they think Biden is capable of running and beating Trump at this point. 

The debate was just a public airing of the concerns many of them have experienced/expressed privately. And that was from those who felt they actually got time with the president over the last year. Others have complained about very limited/controlled interactions. 

BUT they also don't want to be ostracized publicly and/or feel it's already determined that Biden will be the nominee.

Sherman concurs:

I said this on @SquawkCNBC this AM. Most Democrats just say that Biden won the primary so he's the candidate. Very very few think he can win and that he is the right candidate for this moment post debate https://t.co/SOZ9oYP0PS

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) July 9, 2024

It's a good thing that Carville isn't "in the prediction business," but I am, I suppose. Here's my prediction for Democrats in July, at least as things stand at the moment: