So … who had Lindsey Grahamn as the next player in the GOP Primary Exodus Pool? On one hand, it makes sense since no one thought Graham had a prayer of surviving to the Iowa caucus, let alone get a vote in it. On the other hand, Graham has single-handedly dominated the undercard debates with his absolute focus on the war against Islamist terrorism, and has arguably forced almost all of the other candidates to keep up.

Graham offers himself a “mission accomplished” on that score:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k44NsbT-Zw

Four months ago at the very first debate, I said that any candidate that did not understand that we need more American troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria to defeat ISIL was not ready to be commander-in-chief. At that time, no one stepped forward to join me. Today, most of my fellow candidates have come to recognize this is what’s needed to secure our homeland.

I am far more confident today that our party will reject the Obama doctrine of leading from behind and will provide the strong leadership America needs to restore our military, take the fight to our enemies and do what it takes to make our country safe and preserve our way of life.

This is a generational struggle that demands a strategy and the will to win. I will continue to work every day to ensure that our party – and our nation – takes on this fight. I’m suspending my campaign, but never my commitment to achieving security through strength for the American people.

Hmmmm … whomever could Graham mean? Many people expected Rand Paul to ride high in this cycle, propelled by a libertarian-leaning youth movement, but Paul has barely made the main stage all through the debate cycle. As that expected rally either fizzled or never existed in the first place, the GOP contenders have grown more hawkish, while Paul gets more and more marginalized. Graham is taking credit for this — and perhaps to some extent legitimately — but the Paris and San Bernardino attacks almost certainly had much more impact than Graham.

So Graham is out. Who’s next? Rick Santorum ties Graham in the RCP average at 0.5%, and George Pataki comes in even lower at 0.2%, and like Graham never have made it out of the undercard debates. Still, Rand Paul seems the more likely candidate for the next exit, as he has to start preparing for his re-election campaign in Kentucky. Paul has clearly not captured the national imagination, and while his debate performances are improving, his national polling numbers aren’t. He needs to start shepherding resources toward more productive ends more than Santorum, Pataki, or Mike Huckabee do.

If there is still reluctance on the part of marginal candidates, Curtis Kalin has a good suggestion for the next debate on Fox Business Channel in early January:

https://twitter.com/CurtisKalin/status/678949671524548608

Based on national the RCP averages at the moment, that would produce a 4-man debate — Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson. If the 5% minimum applied to Iowa and New Hampshire as well as national (as the CNN debate did), add in Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich, who’s still afloat in New Hampshire. Seven people on stage makes more sense than 13 people on two stages, especially this far into the process. That might start pushing more people than Lindsey Graham into getting a reality check.