I had an interesting article that dovetailed with this in the headlines yesterday. I thought it would make a good jumping off point for a discussion of the overall picture in Virginia, and how close the state’s races are. Especially as it was a local paper, from a wee, tiny town on the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay – Onley, VA.

Weirdest thing happened when I clicked through it today – it had poofed. I dug on their site for a bit, but finally found it archived on the WayBack Machine site. It made me kind of wonder if it was four paragraphs of news no one wanted to hear. Chincoteague County is pretty red – at least it was in 2020 – so maybe that’s not it. Maybe they don’t have a lot of server space.

In any case, it was kind of cheerful.

YOUNGKIN’S EARLY VOTING PUSH SEEMS TO BE WORKING

New data shows Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s push to encourage Republican voters to cast their ballot before Election Day is working.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), more Republicans are voting early ahead of this year’s General Assembly elections than in years past.

According to VPAP, Republican voters are responsible for 38.7% of the in-person, early voting across the state. That’s an 8% increase compared to the same time in 2021 — the last time Virginia held statewide elections.

“The fact that there is even some measurable uptick suggests that he is making some inroads, that this effort is successful,” said Rich Meagher, Professor of Political Science at Randolph-Macon College.

As they note, the GOP still has to turn out new voters, but this is a step in the right direction. Like I said yesterday…

We have to learn to use the rules as they are, not as we want them or they should be. This will be a good test.

…and people like Scott Presler have been working their butts off for a couple years trying to get done

➡️ Northern Virginia ⬅️

Your help is needed in Virginia to win this November.

If we pick up 2 State Senate seats, Governor Glenn Youngkin will have an entirely Republican legislature. pic.twitter.com/xg4P8Wz2oF

— #ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) October 24, 2023

Democrats are bravely skeptical of the GOP’s move to embrace legal voting procedures that have been an anathema for the longest time.

…Zoom in: Youngkin launched the “Secure Your Vote” campaign over the summer, urging voters to cast their ballots early — whether in person or by mail.

• “By every indication, we are hitting the mark — driving Republican turnout in early voting and bringing Republicans who typically just vote in presidential or gubernatorial elections off the sidelines and in the game to win this election,” Dave Rexrode, senior adviser to Youngkin, told Axios in a statement.

• “The rules are the rules. We’re not going to fight with one hand behind our back,” one Virginia GOP operative told Axios.

…What to watch: Virginia’s off-year elections often are viewed as a harbinger for general elections the following year — and this year’s races are too close to call.

• Strategists in both parties are looking at the state’s open seats — without an incumbent riding on name ID — as a testing ground for different messages around the abortion issue.

• Youngkin is pushing a 15-week abortion limit, which includes exceptions, as a consensus position. His team is going on offense against Democrats, accusing them of supporting late-term abortions.

• Recent polling showed a majority of Virginia voters don’t support a 15-week ban.

The abortion issue could be really big – pull those liberal/progressive women out of the DC suburbs to vote where normally they might not. And they are beating that tired MAGA MAGA MAGA drum HARD. Gawd, that tune is so old.

And there it is. Virginia Democrats are already using Republicans’ Speaker chaos in their commercials for the state elections on November 7th.

If you live in Virginia, remember to vote to stop Republicans from passing an abortion ban. pic.twitter.com/zEoLKYNYx3

— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) October 25, 2023

I see abortion being used as a boogeyman on X all through any VA election discussion. It’s not on the ballot, but it’s on the ballot with the legislature up for control but just a few votes in either direction.

Our friend Hans Bader over at Liberty Unyielding pointed to a Jerome Woehrle post* that notes Democrats have a few Halloween skeletons in their own closets they need to keep the doors shut on, too. Jerome’s literally got a laundry list of Democrats behaving badly in his post which might matter to enough voters if they knew.

Virginia is holding a very close election on November 7 for control of its legislature, which is the dominant branch of Virginia’s government. In Virginia, the legislature is so powerful it even picks judges!

…For example, the press won’t tell you that the leader of the Democrats in the Virginia House of Delegates, Don Scott, is a convicted felon. But he is. And he will become the next House speaker if the democrats win the election. He is far to the left of any previous House Democratic leader, such as his predecessor, mainstream liberal Eileen Filler-Corn.

The Republicans absolutely have to get every last waffler and couch sitter out if they want to pull this off year election into the big win column.

Settling the Speaker chaos should help. Getting Congress down to brass tacks ASAP, too, with a guy like Johnson holding the gavel takes the spotlight off the GOP in general, but did it chill in time?

Hopefully enough to get disgruntled, cranky, disaffected Republicans to the polls for the state races. Lord knows it’s hard enough in a big year.

*[Beege Update: made sure I included the post author]