There was a shawarma stand across the lane from us, run by an Arab family.  As Ed unwound kind of a stem-winder (which was usually more my department on that show) I noticed one of the owners standing by the trailer, listening intently, face furrowed in concentration, not missing a word, seeming...focused.  Not necessarily happy.  

"Great", I thought.  "Ed's gonna get us into a fight.   Didn't see that coming".  I'd have figured I'd be the one to get us into a scuffle at a live event.    

We eventually went to a break.  The man walked across the road. 

"I just wanted to say, I agree.  Most Arabs do.  Palestinians are always coming to us demanding money.  We're sick of it".   He came back during the next break and bought shawarma, pita and hummus for the whole crew, and enough left over for my kids' and my dinner that night.   

Which was an interesting lesson - not all politics break straight down ethnic lines. 

And so I may have been less surprised than some last fall, when the Arab vote in Michigan broke for Trump last fall, denying Kamala Harris the swing state she perhaps had the best case for winning.  Now, there's a case to be made that that win was more a matter of Biden and Harris trying to "split the baby", sending Israel aid while keeping Hamas alive:

The Democratic Party did not listen. Harris not only refused to abandon Biden’s staunchly pro-Israel policies on Palestine but also personally supported continued bloodshed in Gaza by publicly insulting anti-genocide campaigners in the state. When pro-Palestinian protesters interrupted a Harris rally in Detroit by simply stating that they “won’t vote for genocide”, she shut them up with her catchphrase, “I’m speaking”.

But the improbable shift appears to have some legs - Muslim support for Democrats is apparently still in the tank:

Only a third of Muslim-Americans identify as Democrats as the party reels from political setbacks with a bloc of voters it hemorrhaged in the 2024 election cycle, according to a stunning survey exclusively shared with The Post.

When asked to identify their political party, 34% of Muslim respondents said Democrat, 34% said independent and 33% said Republican, according to a survey conducted by J.L. Partners last month in partnership with the Muslim American Leadership Alliance.

And while a plurality of American muslims oppose the Trump "Riviera" plan for Gaza, a fairly strong minority are amenable.  And Trump's policies related to things other than the Middle East seem to be getting some traction:

Many of Trump’s key policies drew support from Muslim-Americans, such as his push to deport illegal immigrants (43% support, 33% oppose), additional oil exploration (44% support, 25% oppose) and removing taxes on tipped income (62% support, 12% oppose).

Republicans should, of course, not get cocky.   I'm not aware of a single conservative pundit in the last year or two predicting a move like this as anything less than a generation or more away - and nothing says things can't switch back just as fast. 

But Democrats having to actually work for that particular demographic is a whole new wrinkle.  Let's try not to screw it up.