Mr. Xi has cast himself as the standard-bearer of a sacred cause — unifying Taiwan with China — and Beijing regards visits to the island by American officials as an affront to that claim. China’s foreign ministry has warned Ms. Pelosi of “serious consequences” if, as expected, she goes to Taiwan, and China’s military has issued vague warnings of readiness to defend national sovereignty.

But Mr. Xi is also confronting a brittle economic and political moment, and careening into a crisis over Taiwan could damage him, even as he rallies nationalist support.

He is focused on a Communist Party congress later this year, when he is highly likely to secure backing for a third term as the party’s general secretary, bucking the two-term precedent set by his predecessor. He wants to orchestrate sweeping acclaim from officials to lock in that new five-year term and ensure he dominates decisions on the leadership lineup…

If Ms. Pelosi follows through…Mr. Xi is likely to use displays of military might to convey Beijing’s anger while seeking to avoid a volatile standoff that would spook markets and drag down China’s economy, experts said.

“There will be a very strong reaction, for sure, but it will not be out of control,” said Chen Dingding, an international relations professor at Jinan University in southern China…

“I don’t think that up to now there have been any signs that China will launch major military operations,” said Kuo Yu-jen, a political science professor at the National Sun Yat-sen University in southern Taiwan. “If China overreacts, bringing countermeasures from the U.S. or Japan, for Xi Jinping, the losses would outweigh the gains.”

There’s no doubt that standing up to the US has the potential to make Chinese nationalists forget about some of Xi’s ongoing domestic problems. So in one sense, he may be eager for a showdown. But making threats and getting Pelosi to back down would have been a painless win for Xi. From this point onward, with her visit seemingly set, anything he does won’t be a pure win. In fact, any real confrontation has the potential to blow up in his face. Three months before he claims his 3rd term, Xi can’t afford to risk adding to the perception that he is weak.

So I think that’s why we’re seeing exactly the behavior we’re seeing right now. Xi wanted to stand up to the US and secure a win if he could do so on the cheap, i.e. by rattling the saber really hard and getting the US to back down. Talk as they say is cheap. But his gambit didn’t work and now we’re past that point. If he wants to escalate this further he has to take a real risk. And it sounds like he’s not prepared to do that.

And really why should he? China has unprecedented control of its media space. It can present Pelosi’s visit however it wants. It can continue to talk up Xi Jinping while showing images of China’s latest military exercises. In other words, it can continue to rely on talk, which is cheap, without risking a real confrontation. Unless, Xi is under a lot more pressure about his potential third term than it appears, he won’t take the risk of a confrontation that could spoil his moment.