Last night was the first and only debate in Florida between Marco Rubio and Congresswoman Val Demings. Politico describes this race as one that is being “largely ignored” by national Democrats, even though Demings has raised significant amounts of campaign cash and run active advertising efforts across the state. As with most debates, all of the typical topics were covered, including gun control, climate change, and abortion. The abortion debate was the portion that probably produced the most fireworks, but Demings came off as sounding a bit desperate, continually insulting Rubio and accusing him of being a “liar.” For his part, Rubio focused on Demings’ congressional record and painted her as being out of step with the voters.

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic challenger Rep. Val Demings clashed Tuesday during the pair’s first and only debate in a race that will be among the nation’s most expensive contests this cycle.

The two took personal swipes at each other during the hour-long debate held at Palm Beach State College that included questions on the midterm’s defining topics, including immigration, voting rights, climate change and gun reform. Demings throughout the debate accused Rubio of lying while the senator attacked her record in Congress.

“I think there was a time when you did not lie in order to win,” she said. “I don’t know what happened.”

The exchange about abortion didn’t appear to go very well for Demings. She accused Rubio of supporting “no exceptions” in a total ban on abortions. Rubio was able to immediately point to his support of a bill sponsored by Lindsey Graham that would place a 15-week cap on abortions but contains provisions for exceptions involving rape, incest, or danger to the life of the mother.

Marco Rubio then turned the tables on Demings, accusing her of supporting abortions up until the moment of birth. Demings didn’t appear to even try to deny that, but her position is, if anything, much further out of step with the majority of the public in that regard.

When it came to climate change, which the moderator tried to tie to Hurricane Ian, Demings appeared to be all in on the global warming angle. Rubio focused on the slow response by FEMA in delivering emergency aid. It’s hard to see how that exchange moved the needle very much. Beyond that, the rest of the topics were largely the same left vs right debates that are playing out across the country this year.

I keep seeing headlines in liberal outlets about how Rubio’s seat is a “sleeper election” that people aren’t watching. The numbers don’t seem to bear that out. This race has never looked like a blowout for either candidate, which is to be expected in a closely divided state like Florida that currently seems to be leaning a bit further to the right and the left.

But the Real Clear Politics average for the race still shows Rubio up by 4.7 with barely three weeks to go. And that average includes a couple of polls from the summer where Demings was performing a bit better but still trailing. The most recent polls from September and October have all shown Rubio with a lead ranging from 4 to 7 points. If Demings is building any momentum toward the end of the race, it’s not showing up in these numbers.

Rubio can’t afford to sleepwalk his way through the end of a race like this, but he’s been down this road often enough to know that by now. If he stays active and continues to stay on message, he really should be able to lock this up, particularly given the way Florida has been breaking lately. And his team should be experienced enough to be ready for any “October surprises” that Demings’ people may have in the works.