Iran? Russia? China? Senate Dems? The Maduros themselves? (Naah. Too obvious.)
Iran certainly qualifies for the medal round here. The loss of their footprint in Venezuela would disrupt one of the regime's last sources of hard currency via its proxy in Hezbollah, not to mention their ability to influence and terrorize the Western Hemisphere. However, the loss of that link would not in itself become an existential issue for the regime, even though it certainly contributes to its current existential crises. The biggest loser actually exists much closer to home, according to the Wall Street Journal:
The capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro—one of the Cuban intelligence services’ most valuable charges—punctured its aura of invincibility. U.S. elite forces descended on Maduro’s compound at around 2 a.m. local time Saturday, grabbing him and his wife before they could escape to a safe room, said Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
The Cuban government said 32 officers from its Revolutionary Armed Forces and the Interior Ministry, which runs intelligence services, were killed in the line of duty as part of Maduro’s security detail.
“It’s a defeat for Cuba and denotes its weakening, highlighting vulnerabilities in its security procedures,” said María Werlau, author of “Cuba’s Intervention in Venezuela,” a book published in 2019.
No kidding. Cuba's forces lost nearly three dozen elite security forces without inflicting a single casualty – while defending a fortress? That either demonstrates a nearly superhuman capability in American forces, or complete incompetence within Cuba's armed forces. Havana didn't send flunkies to secure Maduro, after all; his oil keeps Cuba's communist regime in business. As Donald Trump ramped up the pressure on Maduro, Havana had to have fortified its security preparations around its most important financial provider.
And they not only failed in the mission, but apparently couldn't even inflict a single casualty as the Americans plucked the Maduros out of the center of their defensive position. That is an impressive level of failure. And this kind of failure has consequences for a tyrannical regime coasting on the folk legends of its revolutionary leader, one that goes beyond the financial implications of a de facto oil embargo.
The Washington Post details those challenges in its own report today, tacitly agreeing with the WSJ's assessment of Cuba being the biggest loser in this operation:
Aside from an economic uptick during the Obama administration, when the resumption of diplomatic relations between Washington and Havana led to increased tourism and slender openings for private ownership and outside investment, the Cuban economy has never really recovered from the Soviet fall.
The nation has been on a steady slide into economic chaos for years, owing to U.S. sanctions and what even many of its supporters see as mismanagement by a sclerotic Cuban Communist Party.
Some chose to see opportunity in the darkness following Maduro’s ouster. Carlos Alzugaray, a retired career Cuban diplomat reached by phone at his Havana home, said, “There is of course an increase of the threat, a very bad thing.”
But it was possible, he said, that Cuba’s allies in Russia and elsewhere would help, “and just maybe the government will … open up the economy and do what the economists have been telling them for a long time and they have refused to do.”
Russia is not in a position to help anyone at the moment. Vladimir Putin has set Russia's reserves on fire to fund his war in Ukraine, and he relied on the black-market oil revenues facilitated by the same network Maduro used to backstop the Russian economy. Havana might have some luck with China, but cash alone won't solve this crisis now. The humiliation of the Maduro operation has opened another vulnerability for the regime, as the WSJ notes:
For a tiny and impoverished island of about 10 million people, Cuba’s security and intelligence structure is enormous—with about 100,000 officers, said García, the former Cuban intelligence agent.
“They have a presence in workplaces, schools, movie theaters and informants on every street block,” he said. “Fidel Castro’s security detail had 10,000 officers and its own counterintelligence unit.”
Cuba’s security apparatus has been effective at suffocating unrest in Cuba and Venezuela.
They have been effective, mainly due to their reputation. This kind of humiliation will create new incentives and pressures on the security apparatuses in Cuba as the people absorb the lessons of this failure. When the oil and the credibility run out, the regime will either have to ratchet up the oppression to the point of provoking a rebellion, or shift to reforms that will eventually lead to the kind of dissipation the Soviets experienced through glasnost and perestroika.
Don't expect this to happen tomorrow, or next week, or next month. Without oil, though, the lights will go out in Havana in more than one sense sooner or later. Have patience, and keep up the pressure.
The latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast is now up! Today's show features:
- They're celebrating 2026 in Venezuela, and the Maduros managed to get a Caribbean cruise, courtesy of the US Navy.
- Andrew Malcolm and I talk about the stunning seizure of Nicolas Maduro, what it says about the Trump administration, and how the media covered it.
- Plus: Are Democrats painting themselves into yet another corner by defending Maduro?
The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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