Investors Betting Heavy on Jumbo Rate Cut from Fed

The chances of the Federal Reserve kicking off its easing campaign next week with a larger 0.5 percentage-point cut in interest rates have picked back up.

Recent trading in interest-rate futures implied a 49% chance that the Fed would cut rates to a range of 4.75% to 5%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That is up from a 28% chance as of Thursday, and just 14% on Wednesday, FedWatch shows.

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Ed Morrissey

I'm skeptical they'll go for 50 basis points on their first cut. First off, the inflation numbers aren't that good, at least not yet, and job creation isn't all that far off from maintenance levels -- at least in the latest report. I'd expect caution for cuts while inflation still runs hot in key categories. 

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