“Below the surface … turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us,” IMF director of research Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in the opening to the institution’s World Economic Outlook. …

The IMF said potential risks to its economic outlook are “heavily skewed to the downside.” The group warned that the chances of an economic “hard landing” — a significant downturn after a period of growth — have risen sharply.

“Policymakers have a narrow path to walk to improve prospects and minimize risks,” the IMF said.

[Policymakers have a wide path to implement supply-side solutions to increase production and lower costs in a positive way rather than punishing demand. That’s especially true on energy, and even more especially in the US. The only “narrow path” is monetary policy — and that can only punish demand. — Ed]