The November election will be good for Republicans, how good we’ll see. The presidential cycle then begins. The Biden administration from Afghanistan through inflation denialism hasn’t been a success. The economy won’t get better in time for 2024. My guess is little will.
In this atmosphere a normal upstanding Republican or a normal accomplished conservative would beat whatever the Democratic ticket is.
It is only Mr. Trump who would surely lose.
He lost in 2020 by seven million votes with a growing economy and no inflation—and that was before the events of 1/6.
America isn’t going to elect him again. They’re not going to let that guy back in that house. Because everyone knows it: Let Donald Trump back there and he’ll do a 1/6 again. Because while his followers love America, he doesn’t. He likes it as far as it goes, appreciates it as the stage for his greatness, but beyond that . . .
Trump voters: Call an audible again. Look at the field and the facts, be strategic. Donald Trump, in the 2016 primaries, tended to win with about a third of the vote. In a field of 17 that was enough. It’s looking like the GOP field could be larger than expected in 2024, and of course Mr. Trump could run again and win the nomination again. It will be easier for him if past Trump voters fail to think strategically, and if donors big and small don’t move early to winnow the field.
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