Why polls may be underestimating Republicans

Dig into the poll a little more, and you can see where Democrats’ problem lies, though. Our CNN poll asked respondents how enthusiastic they were about voting in this year’s election “extremely, very, somewhat, not too or not enthusiastic at all.”

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Among those who said they were extremely enthusiastic (24%), Republicans held a 59% to 39% lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.

If we expand our universe to include those who were very enthusiastic as well (43% of all voters) of all voters, Republicans were ahead 55% to 42%.

No matter how you measure enthusiasm, the voters who are most enthusiastic about voting this year lean Republican. A similar signal was seen in an NBC News poll last month in which Republicans registered far more interest in the upcoming midterms than Democrats, so this poll is no outlier.

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