Democrats have not increased their margin of support for impeachment, but Americans have grown more certain of the outcome of these hearings. In a late-November poll, a majority of Democrats (53%) and a plurality of Independents (39%) believed that at the end of the impeachment inquiry, Trump would “be impeached by the US House of Representatives but not convicted by the Senate.” In the same November poll, a majority of Republicans (56%) believed “Trump will not be impeached.”

Just two weeks later, fewer than half (47%) of Republicans believe the president will finish his first term without being impeached. Rather, a belief that Trump will be impeached by the US House of Representatives but not convicted by the Senate has grown from 32 percent to 42 percent among Republicans. This week, even more Democrats (61%) and Independents (45%) believe this will be the outcome of the impeachment inquiry.