House model: Democrats 224, Republicans 211

The latest CBS News-YouGov House Model estimates a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, with the party on 224 seats to the Republicans’ 211. With a margin of error of 12 seats, however, this means that control of the House is within reach of either party.

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In terms of the national vote, the Democrats are currently estimated to win 52.1% of ballots cast compared to 43.7% for the Republicans and 4.1% for other parties and candidates.

The Democrats currently hold 195 seats in the House, so even pessimistic scenarios see them making gains. In the “Democrat Low” scenario the party sees an increase of 18 seats to 213, although this still leaves them 5 seats short of a majority. In the more optimistic “Democrat High” scenario the Democrats win 235 seats overall.

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