A curious line in the sand, given the conventional wisdom from the midterm elections. Practically everyone from J.D. Vance on down blamed the shellacking on the Iran War, both in its practical terms – gas and diesel prices – and in contradicting his 2024 pledge to refrain from starting new wars. And those are fair points, at least as much of the backlash as the optics on immigration, if not significantly more so.
Even Donald Trump thinks the Iran War cost the GOP the midterms, or at least the messaging surrounding it. In his 60 Minutes interview with Ross Douthat, Trump says "I don't disagree" with Vance's essay blaming the war for the losses. Trump then declares he'd do it all over again, because a nuclear-armed Iran would be catastrophic to the U.S. and global security.
And he doesn't sound inclined to change course after the election on this issue, unlike the broad hints he gave on immigration:
“I think it was bad messaging,” President Trump says when asked why Americans aren't feeling the benefits of what he describes as a strong U.S. economy, despite the war in Iran. https://t.co/IVe8CKCXUk https://t.co/Gfv0cV92Zo
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) November 9, 2026
President Donald Trump: By the way, "What are you gonna write? "The only thing I wish he would've said there, if he felt it, and you'd have to ask him about that, but if you had to do it again, would you do it? You know, he's part of a decision-making process. And my answer is an emphatic yes because you can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. I think, historically, this will be a very good decision. Is it a good decision for today and tomorrow? Maybe not. But you know, I have to go with what's right for our country. If they had a nuclear weapon during my term, I would be excoriated far worse than what's happened. ...
Ross Douthat: But in poll after poll, people say they're unhappy with this economy in a way they weren't in the first term. Cost of living, inflation, and so on. Is that all just the Iran war?
President Donald Trump: Well, it's not really the Iran war because the numbers are phenomenal. I think it was bad messaging, maybe by me, but I would talk about it all the time. So I don't know, how much can I talk about it? Look, the press doesn't cover-- positive news for Republicans. They don't cover certainly positive news for me. So I have to do it myself. I have to get it out there. We have historically good numbers. We have the highest stock market in history.
Ross Douthat: But why don't Americans feel it, that--
President Donald Trump: They don't--
Ross Douthat: Why-- why don't they-- 'cause they're--
President Donald Trump: Because I think--
Ross Douthat: Obviously, like, you and the press, you and the media, you and our business have been in tension throughout your career.
President Donald Trump: Correct.
Ross Douthat: But you still won elections, right?
President Donald Trump: Yeah.
Ross Douthat: So why couldn't you win this time--
President Donald Trump: I think it was bad messaging.
Ross Douthat: What was the bad message?
President Donald Trump: We couldn't get the word across.
So what happens next? More of the same, Trump responds. He won't escalate, he says, because there isn't any need to escalate. Trump indicates that the embargo will continue until the IRGC folds, and that it's an inexpensive way to keep Iran from reconstituting its threat capacity:
Asked if he plans to escalate the war with Iran now that the midterms are over, President Trump says: “Well, I’m not looking to. I don’t think there’s any reason to.” https://t.co/WxS0xZv09v https://t.co/Rcwjlw1JUb
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) November 9, 2026
Interestingly, and perhaps tellingly, Trump did not offer to negotiate with Democrats on this point like he did with immigration. He didn't exactly double down on Iran, but he's not budging either, not even with Pete Hegseth facing an impeachment motion in the House.
However, Trump did decide to endorse Vance's diplomatic efforts on getting a deal through the Qataris:
President Donald Trump will meet the prime minister of key mediator Qatar on Monday as efforts to end the Iran war ramp up following last week’s midterm elections, though senior US and Gulf officials cast doubt on the chances of an imminent deal.
More than eight months into the conflict he launched alongside Israel on February 28, Trump has played down the likelihood of major warfare restarting soon but remains unwilling to accept an existing Iranian truce plan.
Mutual attacks continue, with the US striking Iran’s Qeshm island overnight, according to Iranian state media, and Iran attacking tankers in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz this month while its Yemeni Houthi allies have hit Saudi Arabia.
Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, who is both prime minister and foreign minister of Qatar, will meet Trump and Vice President JD Vance in Washington later on Monday after having visited Tehran last week.
Iran’s proposal to end the war involves an end to the US blockade of its ports, the lifting of some sanctions and a halt to bombing in return for Tehran stopping its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with talks on its nuclear program and other sanctions to follow.
Iran has made deals on that basis before, only to renege immediately. There isn't any indication that the IRGC has become even slightly more reliable in the months since the last such agreement was tried. This effort may be more for our regional partners than for a realistic chance to end the Hormuz crisis, but Trump is correct that the embargo is relatively low cost and very effective. Even with a hostile Congress meeting in two months, it's going to be tough to "defund the war" under those circumstances, unless Democrats propose to zero out the US Navy.
Maybe they should stick to immigration.
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