Final NBC Poll: GOP Comeback, Y'All?

Old and busted: Narrative shaping. New hotness: Covering your a$$.

Well, for some, anyway.

The 2026 midterm election cycle will come to an end tomorrow, except for the counting. The biggest losers of the cycle may very well be the pollsters, whose product has proven entirely unreliable and – in two cases, at least – utterly fraudulent. The moment of truth will arrive tomorrow night or Wednesday morning, when people compare the results to the "predictive data" and draw their conclusions about value and integrity. 

Pollsters know this better than anyone. How are they addressing their pending credibility crisis? Some, like NBC's pollster, have shifted sharply away from their blue-wave predictions. Their new data shows Republicans suddenly leading on all of the presumed big issues in the election – the economy, immigration, and corruption:

NBC News' final election poll has the Democrat Party with worse favorable ratings than the Republican Party and Republicans still leading on who would do a better job on the economy, immigration, and corruption. https://t.co/Z6uylREP9f

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 1, 2026

Even on the unpopular Iran war, Democrats only lead by five points, and only by one point on inflation, AKA "affordability." It's a wash on "protecting democracy," even before respondents got to absorb Democrats' attempt to defraud voters in Alaska with The Two Dans Sullivan plot. The GOP has a two-point lead on the economy, a five-point margin on corruption, and an eleven-point lead on immigration despite the two-year hysterics Democrats and the media have pitched over ICE and deportations. 

The horse-race polls are shifting, too, including here in Texas:

A new poll has found that Republican Ken Paxton has moved past Democrat James Talarico as the race for U.S. Senate enters its final days.

The poll by Quantus Insights surveyed 1,221 likely voters between Oct. 26 and 28. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

Republicans made up the majority of respondents at 46.7%, with Democrats comprising 39.4% of respondents and Independents at 13.9%.

This cycle, I have largely avoided poll analyses on the premise of GIGO: Garbage in, garbage out. For what it's worth, though, the split in the Texas 2022 midterm vote was 41% GOP, 30% Dem, and 29% independent. In the 2024 election, the split was 38% GOP, 26% Democrat, and 36% independent. In both cycles, Republicans had a double-digit turnout advantage, and independents turned out twice as heavily as in Quantus Insight's model. 

For what it's worth II, voting data boogaloo: On Point Politics has tracked the early vote in Texas (which finished on Friday) using its modeling based on historical analysis and extensive demographic data. Their final modeled turnout split was 42.3% GOP, 34.0% Democrat, and 23.8% independent. Both major parties apparently turned out their base better than in 2022 and 2024, but probably not enough to change the character of the outcomes. 

These and other late results look like a$$-covering, but not every pollster decided to follow their survival instincts. Late yesterday, the New York Times published the final iteration of their Siena polls in battleground states, and those were ... something.

Before we discuss that something, the Home Office would like to pass on its editorial position on the NYT/Siena results:

Anyone who believes this shit at this point is a complete fucking moron and doesn’t belong in politics.

— Storm Paglia 🇺🇸 (@storm_paglia) November 2, 2026

Now that's the kind of poll analysis we've been missing in this cycle! Let me pause a moment to check my status in the payroll system … I kid, I kid. Sorta. 

Anyway, Storm's exactly correct, and not just because of the absurd outcomes listed here, but let's start with those. Once again, Siena has Abdul El-Sayed up by double digits in a state Donald Trump won twice out of three tries. They have James Talarico up seven points over Ken Paxton in Texas. Siena joins another long list of pollsters who claim Susan Collins trails a Democrat challenger, in this case by six points. The only Senate race Siena shows as a dead heat is in Iowa, although they fail to note that the 48/46 lead for Mary Peltola over Dan Sullivan – the real Dan Sullivan – is also within the margin of error.

But Siena is a well-known pollster, right? Long track record of success? Not exactly. The NYT and Siena combined up for a last-minute narrative manipulation two years ago as well:

The final NYT/Siena polls in 2024 had President Trump leading in only one of the swing states. He quite famously won all of them. In every election cycle of the Trump era, the polling industry's misses have only gotten larger and I believe 2026 is gonna be their worst yet. https://t.co/QwFEXGlrB4

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 2, 2026

This is why I've mainly avoided polling analysis after the midterm primaries. The issues go far beyond the hoaxsters at Wedgewood and Median Strategies. The entire industry is rotten, and media-linked election polls appear to be thoroughly corrupt. Regardless of intent, the product is utterly useless and has been for some time. Perhaps someone will do a deep dive into all the failings, and when they do, I suspect that media mistrust has soured most Americans on participating in polls entirely. What's left is as reliable as a Family Feud survey. 

Tomorrow, we'll complete the only surveys that matter, and we'll see what American voters really think. The best way to make that clear is to get out and vote like your country depends on it. Because ... it does.

Addendum: Duane has a deep dive on polling and early voting data coming up in a couple of hours. He's been keeping a very close eye on early turnout numbers.  

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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