Talking hasn't worked. Bombing hasn't worked either, although it's produced more results than negotiators have. Withdrawal not only wouldn't work, it would also transform the war into an Iranian strategic victory.
What options does Donald Trump have left? Strategic patience might be the hole card in this poker game. And according to Axios, Trump has decided to play it:
President Trump signaled on Sunday that he's prepared to allow economic pressure on Iran to mount — as opposed to ordering a new military offensive — even as the country continues to defy the U.S. ...
- "We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money."
- He stressed that Iran "is in very bad shape" economically and has no money to pay its troops. The U.S. naval blockade has exacerbated the Iranian regime's economic crisis, Trump said.
- At the same time, Trump said that with oil down to slightly over $75 a barrel, U.S. consumers are feeling less pain from the war.
- "It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said of the back-and-forth with Iran.
What does "semi-negotiating" mean? It indicates that Trump has finally learned the lesson about negotiating with terrorists in general and the IRGC in particular. He's still engaging because our allies in the Gulf don't want to risk escalating kinetic action that would end up with their energy infrastructure targeted by the IRGC. However, Trump clearly stopped taking those talks seriously over the last couple of weeks, or perhaps for the last six weeks, despite Scott Bessent's claim about yet another deal being around yet another figurative corner last week.
Iran and Oman announced this weekend that they have reached a deal to end the Hormuz crisis. However, the deal leaves Iran in charge of international waterways and commercial shipping, and the IRGC now demands that the US accept those concessions and others in exchange for 'free' passage through the Strait:
Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes between them through the Strait of Hormuz but repeated that the U.S. must meet other conditions, including compensation and an end to sanctions and military threats, before the strategic waterway is reopened. ...
Araqchi said reopening the strait would depend in part on the U.S. paying compensation for damage it caused in widespread attacks on Iran.
The outgoing secretary of Iran's top national security body, Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, also listed ending further U.S. threats against Iran; halting aggression toward Iran and its Lebanese, Palestinian, Yemeni and Iraqi allies; removing a U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf; lifting sanctions on Iran; and releasing frozen Iranian assets.
Er ... or what? Iran can still fire missiles at shipping in the Strait, but the US Navy has been able to keep shipping underway this summer. Their littoral navy can harass tankers and other vessels, but they then become very easy targets for US forces. Iran does not have a blue-water navy any longer, and its air force has long given up the ghost. This is a replay of the Barbary Pirates episodes, or perhaps the Somalian piracy of a few years ago. Oman isn't dumb enough to ally militarily with Iran against the US at this point.
The answer from the US has been a shrug, at least so far. What changes if the US refuses Iran's demands? Nothing. Iran will still harass shipping, but the US will also keep the blockade in place and use Iran's frozen assets to compensate shippers. Hezbollah will continue suffering destruction from the IDF in Lebanon. The Israelis will still pursue the remaining 2,000 or so Gazans who participated in October 7 and fulfill Netanyahu's pledge to kill every last one of them. The IRGC will not be able to ship its oil, and therefore will not be able to pay its troops or the Basij, and eventually those operations will grind to a halt. Feed a cold, starve Vahidi.
It's slow and unsatisfying, and it requires a lot of patience, but it may be the smartest choice. That's especially true when our allies in the region demonstrate less than optimal gastric fortitude in dealing with the IRGC.
To extend the poker analogy: Iran is bluffing, and Trump is apparently about to call rather than raise. He seems to have concluded that direct regime change would require a military expedition on a scale that Americans would not support, and he's correct about that. And as long as Trump can remain strategically patient, he may not need it anyway.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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