Let's put it this way: no one's heard from the head of Hezbollah since the IDF struck its headquarters in Beirut a few hours ago. When the air strike took place, Israel took care to note that they had no confirmation that Hassan Nasrallah got killed in the attack.

Since then, though, silence has spoken volumes. If Nasrallah had survived, and especially if he hadn't been at their Dahiyeh underground complex, he surely would have gotten word out shortly after the attack. 

Lebanese media started off reporting that Nasrallah survived and that a statement would get issued shortly. That has changed, however:

Lebanese Media is now claiming that Hezbollah is unlikely to issue a Statement tonight.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 27, 2024

Translation: No one can find Nasrallah. In fact, if Trent Telenko's analysis is accurate, Lebanese media may have trouble finding anyone to speak on behalf of Hezbollah in Beirut for a while:

These are JDAMs using either BLU-95 500 lb (230 kg) (FAE-II) BLU-96 2,000 lb (910 kg) thermobaric warheads.

The double slap sounds and the jet plumes of orange tinted smoke out of the impacts signify an underground tunnel network being 'serviced' by thermobaric munitions. https://t.co/sZZQ1ngaXA

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 27, 2024

If Nasrallah was in that underground warren, he's almost certainly dead. Earlier, I had expressed some skepticism that Nasrallah would trust Hezbollah facilities after the earlier strikes in Dahiyeh killed several other high-ranking commanders. Israel clearly had precise and actionable intel, and that should have prompted Nasrallah to remove himself to a secure location, preferably a diplomatic mission like an embassy that Israel wouldn't attack. 

Of course, this is the same genius who got deked in Operation Grim Beeper, so ...

This development indicates that something significant has changed, though:

Breaking news: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is holding an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council at his home compound, in response to Israel's strike in Beirut that targeted the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.

— Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) September 27, 2024

Yashar Ali points out that it's 11 pm in Tehran and Khamenei is 85 years old. That kind of meeting doesn't get called unless there's a real emergency and only the Supreme Leader can address it. If Nasrallah was still alive, the IRGC would just coordinate with him at whatever location he chose. 

Israeli media report a cautious optimism that they got Nasrallah, along with whatever remained of Hezbollah's top command. Reuters reports that Hezbollah's media office issued an ambiguous denial of "any statement" about the Israeli strikes, but Israel hasn't made a statement yet. And a former IDF intel chief told Israel's Channel 12 that they wouldn't have ordered that kind of strike without "absolute certainty" of Nasrallah's location. 

Perhaps, but a handful of 'dead' commanders have come back to life over the last 20-plus years in the war on terror, some more than once. Intel can look solid until action is ordered on its basis, only to turn out incorrect. At some point, either Nasrallah will turn up, or he'll turn up dead, but either way their organization has been gutted in less than two weeks after 40 years of digging in. That's the key.

Israel is still shaping the sub-Litani for a ground operation, perhaps hoping that the collapse of leadership will prevent any coherent resistance:

Fighter jets from the Israel Air Force, under the direction of the Northern Command, struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and deeper in the country, the military said on Friday. 

One has to wonder whether the Lebanese Armed Forces might take this opportunity to wrest control of their country back from Hezbollah. That was inconceivable a fortnight ago, but there's at least a clear opportunity to go after their network while leadership is out of touch and apparently incapacitated. The Israelis would be delighted to assist in that effort. 

Meanwhile, the Iranians are furious, blaming the US, but also not exactly threatening retribution:

Statement from the Foreign Ministry of the Islamic Republic of Iran: 

"This brutal attack, carried out with bombs gifted by the U.S. regime to the rogue and rebellious Zionist regime, in addition to being a blatant violation of international laws and regulations, as well as Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national security, constitutes an undeniable war crime. 

Therefore, without a doubt, the U.S. regime is an accomplice to the Zionist regime and must be held accountable.

The continuation of the Zionist regime's crimes against the people of Palestine and Lebanon clearly shows that the call for a ceasefire by the U.S. and some Western countries is a blatant deception aimed at buying time to allow the Zionist regime to continue its crimes against the people of Palestine and Lebanon."

The omission of a threat seems notable. And Yashar Ali scoffs at the sovereignty argument:

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been violating Lebanon’s sovereignty for over 40 years. https://t.co/bUfJnXmdQ9

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) September 27, 2024

That's also rather rich from the terror network that has lobbed missiles at Israel for the last 11 months. We'll update as developments warrant. 

Update: Either the Israelis just got updated intel, or they are just determined to destroy any remaining Hezbollah command infrastructure:

The IDF is calling on Lebanese civilians near several buildings in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut, a known Hezbollah stronghold, to evacuate immediately.

Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, publishes maps alongside the announcement, which call on civilians to distance themselves at least 500 meters from three sites in Dahiyeh.

The first round of strikes came with no warning, so this warning isn't likely about personnel. It's an attempt to degrade any more remaining Hezbollah infrastructure in Dahiyeh, perhaps to get the Lebanese government to seize the initiative and push what's left of Hezbollah out of the way. 

Update: Strike up 'The Sounds of Silence' as its own message, according to Reuters:

Hezbollah's senior leadership was unreachable following Israel's strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs on Friday evening, a source close to the Lebanese armed group told Reuters.

Hours after the strikes, Hezbollah had not made a statement on the fate of its head, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

At a certain point, the silence speaks for itself. And we are rapidly reaching that point. It looks like the entire leadership structure may have been destroyed.