Perhaps we do now see a convention bounce -- only not so much for Kamala Harris. Two new battleground polls show momentum shifting to Democrats in Senate races, while the presidential races still appear to run within the margin of error.

Let's start with Fox News, a polling series that has not always bathed Republicans in hope in the past. Last night, they released a series of "Sun Belt" state polls that show Kamala Harris pull into virtual dead heats in states where Donald Trump previously had leads, sometimes outside the margin of error. The silver lining here is that Trump hasn't declined as much as Harris has managed to rally the Democrat base:

While support for former President Trump has held steady, Vice President Kamala Harris has improved on President Biden’s 2024 election numbers in four battleground states, driven by strong support among women, Black voters and young voters. In addition, while Trump leads on top issues, more voters see Harris as the one who can unite the country — and who will "fight for people like you." That’s according to new Fox News statewide surveys in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.  ...

The surveys, released Wednesday, find a close, two-way Harris-Trump race: Harris is up by 1 percentage point in Arizona and by 2 points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump is ahead by 1 point in North Carolina. All are within the margin of sampling error.

All of these polls took place after Harris' acceptance speech a week ago. Most of the polling took place after Robert F. Kennedy announced his support for Trump, too. The immediate aftermath of the convention and the publicity does appear to have given Harris a boost, although not necessarily translated into conversion of voters from Trump's ranks. 

There's another point to keep in perspective, too. Biden won all of these states except North Carolina in 2020. Harris has to hold all of these states plus the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and Nevada, for that matter) to win the White House. Trump probably only needs to take two of these states to win. And in the aggregate, Trump is still very much in the race for these states even after the first blush of the Joy-Joy Convention:

Overall, in an average of the four states, Harris is ahead of Trump by a single point in the two-way match-up, 50% to 49%. That 1-point Harris edge also holds among the 7 in 10 voters who say they are extremely motivated to cast a ballot this year.

As I wrote last night, we're seeing an enthusiasm bump for Harris more than a convention bounce in terms of conversion. And enthusiasm bumps can be outlasted, especially when the enthusiasm is for a candidate with so little definition or substance.

That brings us to Emerson's new polling this morning in battleground states, which also shows Harris getting an enthusiasm bump. The news for her is less pleasant in the Blue Wall states, and Emerson also shows Trump leading in Arizona as well:

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%). ...

“Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020. In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”

This shows some slight movement, but not enough for Harris, and especially not where it counts. The enthusiasm could continue to build, of course, but Harris won't get four nights of celebrity sonnets and prime-time hosannas after this (except on MSNBC, of course). Trump and his campaign now have some room to keep defining Harris, and she might have trouble competing against that as long as she balks at tough questions and policy discussions. 

But the news is not all sunny at Emerson for the GOP either. Take a look at the battleground polling in the Senate races, where the GOP appears to be struggling to convert in a cycle where they have significant advantage:

• AZ Senate: Democrat Ruben Gallego 49%, Republican Kari Lake 42% 
• MI Senate: Democrat Elissa Slotkin 47%, Republican Mike Rogers to 41%.
• NV Senate: Democrat Jacky Rosen 50%, Republican Sam Brown 40%

• NC Governor: Democrat Josh Stein 47%, Republican Mark Robinson 41%.
• PA Senate: Democrat Senator Bob Casey 48%, Republican Dave McCormick 44%
• WI Senate: Democrat Tammy Baldwin 49%, Republican Eric Hovde 48%.

Only the last two look promising for Republicans, especially because the Democrat incumbents should be performing much better at this stage than their challengers. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are essentially dead heats against established Democrat incumbents, and surprisingly so especially in PA where the incumbent is also a Dem nepo baby. But in Arizona and Michigan, Republicans are vying for open Senate seats and are coming in weak against progressive House Democrats.

And that ain't good on the cusp of a Labor Day weekend. That's looking like a bounce for Dems, which makes the contrast in PA and WI all the more dramatic. 

The RNC and its campaigns need to work on voter contacts and GOTV strength pronto. Trump appears to be running ahead of these candidates in battleground states, and maybe they need to see how he's doing it.