If you were wondering why Trump has paused strikes on Iran since Friday, the explanations are trickling out of the White House.
There are always reasons to be skeptical of anonymous leaks reported in the media, but what is being reported is plausible and explains what has otherwise been baffling to many people.
Two major reasons have been cited, stemming from advice given to Trump by General Dan Cain and Admiral Brad Cooper.
🇺🇸🇮🇷The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness. My story on @axios https://t.co/YodOvjKNmb
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) July 26, 2026
Admiral Cooper informed the White House that he assessed that there were too few high-value targets left to strike to make the effort and risk worthwhile, at least until President Trump made the decision to elevate the conflict to the level of major combat operations.
The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, according to two sources with knowledge of his position.
Why it matters: The recommendation by Cooper, the commander of the U.S. Military Central Command (CENTCOM), together with other advisers impacted President Trump's decision on Friday to pause U.S. strikes against Iran, the sources said.
- It was an acknowledgement by both military and civilian advisers to the president that there are limits to what can be accomplished through military action, and specifically an air power campaign.
Driving the news: For the first time in two weeks, Trump ordered the military to hold fire and not conduct strikes against Iranian targets around the southern coast of Iran and in the Strait of Hormuz area.
- The decision came after a meeting with top advisers and military officials who presented him with a new strike plan for the day.
- In the days before the meeting, Trump had been leaning toward returning to major combat operations, but his mindset started to change on Thursday evening, sources said.
- His decision to pump the brakes on bombing the strait solidified on Friday.
Behind the scenes: Earlier in the week, Admiral Cooper gave his recommendation on the way forward to the Pentagon, the joint chiefs and the White House, the sources said.
- He stressed that the two weeks of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area had significantly degraded Iran's ability to attack ships.
- Cooper noted that the designated bombing targets had been mostly exhausted.
- The CENTCOM commander said a possible next step would be to resume major combat operations to finish the 20% of targets the U.S. military designated but didn't strike during Operation Epic Fury.
- Absent a decision to return to major combat operations, he stressed there was no point in continuing the bombing campaign of the previous two weeks, the sources said.
By major combat operation, I presume Admiral Cooper means a level of strikes that far exceeds the current strategic goal of degrading Iran's capacity to strike shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Admiral Cooper's recommendation in itself is hardly worrying, but the second reason reported does raise concerns because it exceeds the level of tactical decision-making: a concern over the level of available air defense capacity.
Breaking News: President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran. https://t.co/qvWp4egLZd
— The New York Times (@nytimes) July 25, 2026
For months, there has been speculation that air defense interceptors are being depleted at an alarming rate, and that combat losses of the targeting systems themselves are worrying. For obvious reasons, the Pentagon does not discuss these matters, as it informs the decision-making of our adversaries in the region as well as elsewhere, particularly China's calculation of the risks it would face in any move on Taiwan.
President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.
The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.
The latest turn in Mr. Trump’s handling of the conflict with Iran came after a meeting on Friday with top advisers and senior members of his cabinet, according to two people briefed on the discussion.
The private deliberations have focused on the Pentagon’s shrinking inventory of Patriot interceptors and other air defenses, the officials said, discussing operational matters on the condition of anonymity. Three U.S. soldiers in Jordan were killed last Friday when a ballistic missile slipped through American air defenses fending off a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones, a senior U.S. official said.
Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned privately that resuming major combat operations against Iran was doable but that it would dangerously deplete interceptors available to the military’s Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the Middle East, the officials said. A spokesman for General Caine declined to comment on advice the general gives the president.
The advice from the senior leader in the theater and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs combined is a one-two punch; on the one hand, continued strikes would have limited utility unless President Trump expanded the goals of the operation and perhaps committed ground troops, and on the other, doing so would risk degrading U.S. capabilities to the point where our military capabilities would be depleted dangerously.
No mention at all of precision strike capabilities was in either report. Either that means that our stockpiles are more than sufficient to maintain strikes in Iran for the foreseeable future and retain enough capability for deterrence elsewhere, or that precision strikes can be accomplished without using exquisite capabilities, and instead using versions of the JDAM bombs, as most strikes are already.
Also, there are no mentions of Pickaxe Mountain, the last remaining unstruck nuclear site, which would be orders of magnitude more difficult to damage than Fordow, for which our most capable bunker-buster penetrators were designed. The Pickaxe Mountain facility is buried much deeper under granite than Fordow was, and that stretched the limits of our striking capabilities.
Of course, all this reporting could be head fakes—disinformation meant to muddy the waters and leave Iranian leaders in the dark. The Trump administration has used misinformation to its advantage more than once.
Personally, I think that all this has the ring of truth, but like you, I am reserving judgment.
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