I've alluded to this before, but it bears repeating: there is not one Iranian government, but two.
There is the IRGC and, until recently, the Ayatollah, and there is the civilian government. And, right now, the two are not aligned in the least about how to end the war with Israel and the United States.
Rifts emerging between Iran's civilian government and the military-intelligence apparatus. The ayatollahs are being sidelined and Iran's president and parliament strong-armed by the IRGC and military leadership. Iranian economy could collapse in a month.https://t.co/LxZ6uqeMIh
— The Emmaus Wire (@EmmausWire) April 7, 2026
It sure looks like the heads of the civilian government cut a deal with the US, and it looks just as certain that the IRGC has decided that there is no deal.
Rifts emerging between Iran's civilian government and the military-intelligence apparatus. The ayatollahs are being sidelined and Iran's president and parliament strong-armed by the IRGC and military leadership. Iranian economy could collapse in a month.https://t.co/LxZ6uqeMIh
— The Emmaus Wire (@EmmausWire) April 7, 2026
Two sources close to the presidential office said a tense exchange took place on Saturday, April 4, between Pezeshkian and Hossein Taeb, a powerful figure close to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Those present described the conversation as unusually difficult and highly charged.
During the meeting, Pezeshkian accused IRGC chief commander Ahmad Vahidi and Ali Abdollahi, commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters – the country’s armed forces' unified command, of acting unilaterally and driving escalation through attacks on regional countries, especially against their infrastructure.
According to the sources, Pezeshkian said those policies had destroyed any remaining chance of a ceasefire and were steering the Islamic Republic directly toward “a huge catastrophe.”
He also warned that, based on what he described as precise assessments, Iran’s economy would not be able to withstand a prolonged war for much longer and that full economic collapse was inevitable under current conditions.
The confrontation comes amid mounting evidence of a broader power shift inside the Islamic Republic, with military and intelligence networks increasingly displacing both the elected government and the traditional clerical order.
The existence of tensions between the civilian government and the radical elements of the regime is not exactly new, but the split has never been as evident as it is right now.
As I argued yesterday, Trump and Netanyahu have clearly had a strategy of weakening the IRGC and changing the balance of power. In some ways, that has worked, with massive strikes aimed at the IRGC and the Ayatollahs, while leaving the civilian government largely intact.
"On Monday, President Trump ordered a decapitation strike which took out 50 to 70 of the IRGC's top leadership."@jsolomonReports explains that U.S. strikes and CIA operations have weakened Iran’s IRGC, shifting influence toward civilian leaders who may favor a negotiated… pic.twitter.com/UbxJLybI0F
— Just the News (@JustTheNews) April 7, 2026
What's not at all clear is whether that strategy will bear fruit. While the arguments that Iran will come out of this confrontation stronger than ever are absurd, the same, so far, cannot be said of the IRGC, which has apparently increased its grip on the Tehran government.
Who's Running Iran Now? It's Not the Supreme Leader. https://t.co/92f4QgYjIW
— Marlon East Of The Pecos (@Darksideleader2) April 8, 2026
It sure looks like there is no Supreme Leader anymore, and it's questionable whether the religious authorities actually retain much control over the IRGC. It is quite possible, even likely, that the United States and Israel will have succeeded in reducing the influence of the religious faction that has controlled Iran since 1979, while seeing that power transferred to the IRGC.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on violations of ceasefire. Appeals to all parties to apply restraint.
— Aditya Raj Kaul (@AdityaRajKaul) April 8, 2026
Israel hasn’t agreed to end its operation in Lebanon. Iran too has fired missiles towards UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain. https://t.co/sxrnNYYgJn
Iran has been firing missiles at its Gulf neighbors even today, after the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect. They are not exactly rejecting the ceasefire idea outright, maintaining the illusion of civilian control, and blaming the continued conflict on Israel's attacks on Hezbollah.
BREAKING: Nonstop Iranian missiles raining down on Tel Aviv less than two hours into the ceasefire.
— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) April 8, 2026
Since the ceasefire began, Iran has attack Israel, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
Where is the outrage? pic.twitter.com/EthuUaNgXl
This is an interesting point, because Hezbollah was not part of the deal, and Iran has made claims that they have never been aggressive toward other countries. Suddenly Hezbollah=Iran? If so, they are claiming to have colonized Lebanon.
JUST IN: Iran is launching missile and drone strikes on the UAE and Kuwait even as the U.S.-Iran cease-fire is announced.
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) April 8, 2026
UAE air defenses are actively engaging ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones originating from Iran.
Kuwait reports its defenses have been fighting… pic.twitter.com/suhFt0WOHI
Whatever. The important point is this: right now, the IRGC has effective control over Iran's military actions, because it is effectively a parallel military. Iran's civilian-controlled military can stand down, while the IRGC goes on its merry way.
Let me take you through a thought experiment about what “the Iranian regime” actually is right now.
— Gummi (@gummibear737) April 8, 2026
Imagine a country like Iran, where familial and tribal loyalties run in parallel to the centralized authority. A place where patronage is built into the system. The US and…
Imagine a country like Iran, where familial and tribal loyalties run in parallel to the centralized authority. A place where patronage is built into the system. The US and Israel have decimated the leadership of both the Supreme Ruler and his clerics as well as the IRGC command. Factor in the mosaic strategy of spreading the IRGC out across all 31 provinces, plus constant attacks and degradation of Iranian infrastructure used by the IRGC: communication, roads, bases.
In such a world the issue of succession becomes a problem, even if the regime thought they had prepared for it. New positions of authority are not being delegated from above, but rather are being assumed based on some hierarchy or org structure that may or may not still exist one month into the war.
The IRGC leadership is not nearly as ideologically aligned as maybe the mullahs or the rank and file are. We are seeing reports of the relatives of high level IRGC living lavish lifestyles in the United States. We also know that the IRGC operates like a sort of organized crime syndicate within Iran, whereby they control large parts of the economy. Leadership is continuing to be killed on a near daily basis.
It does not appear that the mullahs are even in charge anymore. The IRGC imposed the new supreme leader, even though all accounts say that he is badly injured and not conscious. There is probably some sort of coup whereby the IRGC has assumed power and decision-making without announcing it publicly. And there are reports of the president complaining that he has no real power and that the IRGC are pulling the strings.
Complicating things is the fact that the UAE has, apparently, entered the war against Iran. That's not certain, because the source for this comes from Iran itself, but it is certainly plausible.
The GCC states want the Iranian government destroyed; since neither Israel nor the US is currently attacking Iran, it may be that the Gulf states will pick up the baton. That is a possible variable to consider.
🚨 BREAKING: Iran SHUTS DOWN the Strait of Hormuz, state media says, blaming Israel for relentlessly attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 8, 2026
Iran is THREATENING to resume hostilities.
President Trump is watching closely and we're about to find out how long this lasts pic.twitter.com/0L3tGhrDbO
Claims that Iran's government will come out of this even more radicalized than before are absurd, of course. Iran has been at war with us for half a century, killing Americans, European, Arabs, and Israelis whenever it could. An IRGC-led government would be horrible, but it's hard to see how much more horrible than a government that murders its citizens with abandon.
As things stand, the drama of the moment is who really runs Iran? Will it be people who can and will make a deal, or will it be the more radical elements of the IRGC?
Stay tuned. We live in interesting times.
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