First of all, I am not a lawyer, a legal analyst, a legal scholar, nor as smart about these things as Ed, who is on vacation.

But I have spent a bit of time around politics, and the collapse of the Hunter plea deal promises to shake up the political landscape, although we have no idea how much yet. The bomb is still in the air, so we don’t know whether its explosion will be nuclear, fuel-air, bunker-buster, or anything up to and including a big dud.

But at the very least, when it hits the ground even a dud has some substantial kinetic energy and it will leave a crater.

I have to admit that I am as surprised as anybody that they didn’t find a way to push this through. Clearly, both the prosecution and the defense wanted to get these charges out of the way, and I sincerely doubt that there was any “misunderstanding” between the prosecutors and the defense on the terms of the deal.

That would be some really bad lawyering, and US Attorneys are rarely bad lawyers and Hunter can afford the best. The judge wasn’t buying what the lawyers were selling, and the US Attorney couldn’t admit to the judge or to the public that they were going to just drop the investigation for a variety of reasons.

I am not alone is being incredulous about how bad the lawyering looks. Even on CNN, they weren’t blaming the judge, but the lawyers for apparently not knowing what was in the deal. It beggars belief.

CNN: "Someone made a bad mistake here."

"How could there be such a big miscommunication?!"

"I cannot even begin to understand how Hunter Biden's lawyers walk him into that courthouse without knowing exactly what the constraints, what the limitations of that deal are!" pic.twitter.com/2XP9ZmsWtF

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) July 26, 2023

Of course, there is an explanation: they knew exactly what the plea deal included–a get-out-of-jail-free card for Hunter and simultaneously a fig leaf for the US Attorney–the ability to PRETEND to continue to investigate Biden, without there being any real prospect that he faces additional charges. There is a reason they needed that second part, and it isn’t to make the US Attorney look good.

The judge looked at the deal and said the obvious: this makes no sense at all. No plea deal in the world has ever looked like this. Ever. Even the US Attorney’s office had to admit that was the case.

“We’re not asking the court to rubber-stamp anything,” Wise said at one point, to which the judge answered: “Well, it certainly seems that way.”

Finally, after three hours of high drama, Noreika told Wise and Clark that the revised agreement was still “not straightforward” and included “atypical provisions.”

Asked if there was any precedent for the kind of deal being proposed, Wise admitted: “No, your honor.”

“I think having you guys talk more makes sense,” the judge said, before asking Hunter: “Without me saying I’ll agree to the plea agreement, how do you plead?”

First, it’s clear that Hunter is vulnerable to many other charges, particularly violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). Given that Hunter violated tax laws precisely because he was raking in cash as an unregistered foreign agent, they have to at least pretend to care about that. And given the whistleblower testimony the US Attorney can’t appear to simply ignore the raft of felonies.

Then there is the gun charge, about which there is some question whether the deal should include it. And if the investigation is still going on, why a plea deal now?

Q: Does Biden believe possessing a firearm illegally "should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law"?

KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: "I'm just going to not speak to that." pic.twitter.com/kRBunRIfRZ

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 26, 2023

So if the point was the sweep everything under the rug, why wouldn’t the US Attorney just say: this is it, judge, no more? Our investigation is done. After all, the biggest problem the judge identified was that a plea deal was happening in the middle of an investigation, which is unprecedented.

The answer is actually very simple.

If the case were closed, the US Attorney would be in a position to hand over investigative materials to Congress, and clearly, the Justice Department is not thrilled by that prospect. They want Hunter’s legal problems behind him, while simultaneously being able to tell Congress the case is ongoing so they can’t share any evidence. 

So it’s a mess. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. It’s hard to see how a judge accepts a plea deal if the case is still open, and if the case gets closed then Congress gets testimony and evidence. Horns of a dilemma.

That, I believe, is why the plea deal died. They needed two incompatible things to become compatible; close the case without closing it.

Suddenly it has gotten much harder for the media to stay out of the case, though. They can scream MAGA judge all they want, but the case is going on for a while. And since the judge was actually a bipartisan appointment–both of her Democrat Senators put her forward and she was noncontroversial, it’s harder to smear her. She is probably politically connected with Democrats.

The NYT reporter who is covering this had a very interesting take: the case is fairly new to him.

one of the lead reporters on the new york times' coverage of hunter biden is "late to the story" pic.twitter.com/9n7Iew4uQd

— Joe Gabriel Simonson (@SaysSimonson) July 26, 2023

Fascinating. Welcome to the party, pal! Maybe you will find the story a bit interesting.

Hunter can’t be happy because he had to actually make a plea to the judge, and it wasn’t one that came with a deal. He is, of course, “not guilty,” but as a person charged with a felony all of a sudden (that gun charge wasn’t diverted!), he has some interesting restrictions placed on him.

Hunter Biden’s conditions of release include: he must not consume alcohol or prohibited drugs, or possess a firearm, must submit to random drug tests as required, must actively seek employment and not violate any laws. pic.twitter.com/bw0uFH67EI

— Miranda Devine (@mirandadevine) July 26, 2023

Somebody is likely to be staying at the White House some more, I would guess.

It’s a hard life being an accused felon still under investigation. I wonder what kind of job he is intending to get, per his release agreement? Maybe there is a nice sinecure as a board member somewhere. I hear he knows about oil. Maybe he can be The Big Guy’s butler?

It must be particularly hard for Hunter because he is constantly surrounded by armed law enforcement officers. Except in the case of the Secret Service they see no evil, hear no evil, and speak no evil. Do these guys like having to be trained monkeys cleaning up after the President’s son? I suspect not.

Did American Taxpayers pay for Hunter Biden’s motorcade to court?

pic.twitter.com/jGn6tOLlxJ

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 26, 2023

An accused felon with a Secret Service motorcade. I wonder if he pays them with art for their services.

As a practical matter, the behavior of the Democrats and the White House will remain unchanged, so the size of the crater the bomb leaves will be determined by how interested the MSM gets in pursuing all the potential stories here. We can expect lots of blathering on Fox News, but with CBS actually doing some work on it others in the media will be feeling pressure to jump into journalist mode.

Will the Washington Post and New York Times notice that the Justice Department proposed a plea deal that they admitted to the judge was totally unprecedented? That is a pretty big admission to make in open court.

“Yes Judge, we want to create a new standard of law: “Son of President, Not Guilty.” Spiro Agnew must be rolling over in his grave, wondering why a president’s son gets a better deal than a Vice President.

If there isn’t a united front in the media, the stone wall may crumble. And people can get buried underneath the rubble when a stone wall falls down.

The failure of the plea deal doesn’t spell doom for Hunter or the White House, but it imperils them more than at any time since this began. If the case were closed only Republicans would squawk, but a surprise twist gets everyone’s attention.

Stay tuned. This could get interesting.