It’s weird that they thought Mitch McConnell, of all people, needed to be notified of this when it’s been obvious for months in public polling that McSally’s at dire risk of losing. Here’s every poll of her race against Mark Kelly so far this year. The top line is the polling average, followed by the most recent polls.
Two of the last four polls taken have Kelly up by double digits. His lead has grown over time. He’s a local celebrity in Arizona twice over, both as an astronaut and as the husband of Gabby Giffords, and he’s outraised McSally repeatedly. In the last quarter he hauled in $11 million compared to her $6.2 million and as of the end of March had nearly double the amount of cash on hand that she had.
With the possible exception of Cory Gardner’s seat in Colorado, there’s no race more likely to go blue this fall than this one. Increasingly it seems like the only reason the GOP will spend money on it is because Trump desperately needs to hold Arizona in his own race against Biden to stay north of 270 electoral votes. The likeliest path for Biden to win according to one Democratic analyst is taking Michigan and Pennsylvania, where he’s leading in both states right now, and Arizona. Republicans need to do what they can to keep turnout up there. A noncompetitive Senate race won’t help.