Yesterday Axios published a memo from Doug Sosnik, the political director of the winning Clinton ’96 campaign, laying out Biden’s likeliest path to the presidency. Gotta be Pennsylvania + Michigan + Wisconsin, right? Dems will try to rebuild the blue wall in the Rust Belt and having a nominee from Scranton is going to help them do it.
Not so, said Sosnik. It’s true that Pennsylvania and Michigan are very much in play this year but Trump’s job approval in Wisconsin has been consistently higher than it is in most of the country. That state may be a heavy lift for Biden. And if Trump holds it, it could be decisive. Winning PA and MI gets the Democrat to 268 electoral votes. He needs one more state (or, I guess, he needs to pick off the two congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska that award one electoral vote each to the winner in their district). Which state can he get?
Arizona, says Sosnik. They elected Kyrsten Sinema two years ago and Mark Kelly looks increasingly likely to bump off Martha McSally this fall, raising the unthinkable prospect of two Democrats representing Goldwater’s home state in the Senate. Dems obviously can win statewide there. Pennsylvania + Michigan + Arizona is Biden’s road to the White House.