This is like writing the book report you had all summer to write an hour before it’s due.

Did the revelation that Joe Manchin has a topline number on reconciliation after all finally shake something loose?

Details here are thin, obviously, but I can’t help noticing that House progressives aren’t represented in this huddle.

NEWS … BEHIND THE SCENES: Top policy aides to @SpeakerPelosi & @SenSchumer have been huddling w top WH advisers @AmbRice46 & @BrianDeeseNEC in Speaker’s inner conf. room for last hour

Working on compromise language btwn WH, Sen & House that would bring Sinema & Manchin along

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) September 30, 2021

LATEST we’re hearing (@sarahnferris):

Framework wld include topline and agreement in three areas — family (child care), healthcare (ACA) and climate

President likely need to publicly endorse it

Then caucus (maybe) and vote would happen

MANY Dems skeptical this comes together

— Heather Caygle (@heatherscope) September 30, 2021

So if Sherman has it right, Biden gets what he wants, Manchinema and the centrists get what they want, and progressives get …?

Is a $1.5 trillion (or slightly larger) reconciliation bill that’s in keeping with Manchin’s red line acceptable to lefties? Because they don’t sound too excited about it:

How @BernieSanders described what a $1.5 trillion max topline (oh, just a random number out of thin air) would mean for the Democratic reconciliation package: pic.twitter.com/KjERKv9vmM

— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) September 30, 2021

Pramila Jayapal, the leader of the House progressive caucus, didn’t rule out a $1.5 trillion bill when asked, tactfully responding “I don’t have a number.” But that would be less than half of what lefties want. So Jayapal continues to talk tough:

Jayapal, asked how unified her caucus is on infrastructure: “I am a very good vote-counter also. Maybe not quite as good as Nancy Pelosi sometimes, but I’m excellent.”

“We’re still at over a majority” against the bill, she says, adding: “Some of those aren’t even our members.”

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) September 30, 2021

She told reporters earlier today that Pelosi promised her nothing would be agreed to on infrastructure without progressive input. But according to Politico, there’s a chance that Pelosi will hold a gut-check vote on the bipartisan bill later today even if she’s short of 218 in hopes of pressuring reluctant lefties to come through for Biden. You don’t really want to embarrass the president, do you?

During a private leadership meeting Thursday morning, several members of Pelosi’s team expressed reservations about bringing the bill to the floor given the lack of support within the caucus. But, later, during a private meeting with moderate Democrats, Pelosi reiterated her intention to hold the vote later in the day, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.

Multiple Democrats said part of the plan would be to hold the vote open until Pelosi can corral enough members for passage, whether that be from the progressive wing of the caucus or from Republicans who support the infrastructure bill. One member described it as a “staredown” strategy.

High drama. And no one seems to know which way it’s going to go:

Two total different realities in the House just now. Gottheimer comes down the steps and says confidently vote is going to happen and infrastructure bill will pass tonight. Then minutes later, Jayapal comes out and tells us vote won’t happen and if it does, it will fail

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) September 30, 2021

The only thing that’s certain is that progressives feel betrayed by Sinema, who was cracked up to be a liberal, and have come to hate her for driving the price of the bill down:

Progressive Rep. Mark Pocan says Manchin’s proposal has “probably helped some things move loose.”

But, he adds, “Half of Manchinema has now shown us something. Waiting for the other half to show us something other than a designer purse.”https://t.co/yg06Xbuaaa

— Andrew Solender (@AndrewSolender) September 30, 2021

It’s gettin’ chippy out there. And sexist!

Below you’ll find a notable clip of former Obama strategist David Axelrod nudging lefties to take half a loaf — a gigantic half a loaf in the case of the reconciliation — instead of settling for nothing because they can’t get everything they want. As I said this morning, some progressives are holding out for a $3.5 trillion bill partly because they’re still disgruntled about having caved a dozen years ago on a public option for ObamaCare. Axelrod is ready for that argument: Would you be happier if ObamaCare had never passed? If Manchin’s willing to do mega-spending on social welfare instead of ultra-super-mega-spending, isn’t that better than nothing?

There’s another risk to holding the bipartisan bill hostage in order to try to force Manchinema’s topline upwards on the reconciliation bill. The more lefties act like the bipartisan bill sucks and is just something they’re going along with to get what they really want, the harder it’ll be for the rest of the party to sell it to voters as a major accomplishment. To hear the Squad tell it, the roads-and-bridges bill is merely the price of admission for doing meaningful good for the country via the reconciliation bill, not meaningfully good in and of itself. What happens if that perception takes hold and then the two wings of the party can’t get together on reconciliation, making the bipartisan bill the only game in town?