It has been speculated by wiser and more well-seasoned Canadian watchers than I that the so-called 'trade war' tiny Syrupean prime minister, Mark Carney, initiated by walking away from what our U.S. trade representative said was the 'greatest deal ever,' was purely political theatrics for home consumption - specifically those in the province of Quebec.
It seems for all his unctuous efforts to appear competent and likable, the little leader of the Canadian confederation and Liberal Party was staring at polls intimating the very real possibility that his party was going to lose control of the Quebecois legislature, something Carney was desperate to avoid. Because his triumph over Pierre Poilievre in the general election had been driven solely by a raging Syrupean TDS pandemic and Carney's anti-Trump rhetoric in response to the American president's jibes, the PM thought he'd flex those same muscles to impress the Francophiles in Montreal and Quebec and convince them to stick with him.
For good measure, he added some serious European Union schmoozling to burnish his globalist chops for what he hoped was an appreciative audience. Not to mention he really digs those authoritarians. They are his kind of Davos people, after all - bugs and everything.
As far as the disastrous contretemps he plunged his wee little economy into in an effort to save his party's derriere in a single province, bets were that Carney would be back at the table, greasy smile intact and demanding that schweet deal with a pen in his hand the second the Quebec elections and our midterms were over.
Everything would be forgotten, and Canada could roll back to its comfortable ward-of-the-States status. Back to being the annoying and occasionally expensive little brother who never completely moves out of the house.
So the first part of what analysts presume is Carney's stra-tee-gery played out yesterday, when Quebec went to the polls at last.
VIVE LE PARTI QUÉBÉCOIS
Quebec separatists vowing independence vote win an election but fall short of majority
The separatist Parti Québécois won Quebec’s provincial election Monday but fell short of enough seats to govern alone, returning to power with a promise to hold another referendum on independence from Canada.
The result returns Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s party to power for the first time in more than a decade but denies it the majority it sought, forcing the separatists to rely on opposition parties even as they try to revive Quebec’s independence debate.
It seems the shameless pandering did work out for the wee PM's party, but the election results? Oh, not at all in the way he'd hoped.
His Liberal Party did gain seats, more than doubling what they had before, and is already planning on playing the spoilers.
The Liberals are in a stronger-than-expected position after Monday, jumping from 19 seats to a projected 40.
Speaking to supporters, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard said Quebec voters elected a National Assembly without a majority, so the PQ will have an obligation to consider proposals coming from other parties.
He said the Liberals will be reviewing proposals put forward by the PQ and considering if they are in the province’s best interest.
“Preparing your referendum will find you facing a clear opponent in the Liberal Party,” Milliard said.
Switching to English, he said his party will collaborate on many issues, but “there is no way we will collaborate on a potential referendum.”
What was unexpected turned out to be the utter and complete devastation suffered by the party that had been in charge for the past two cycles. It turns out that being tyrants during COVID (among other unforgivable transgressions) literally destroyed the former nationalist majority party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ).
After eight years leading a majority government, it all came crumbling down Monday night for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ).
Quebec voters decisively turned away from the CAQ and leader Christine Fréchette on election night as the party was projected to win no seats.
Quebecers voted in Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the Parti Québécois (PQ), which will lead them for the next four years.
In a concession speech Monday, Fréchette said she called and congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon and offered him her collaboration for an orderly transition.
“Quebecers wanted change, and I respect their choice,” the outgoing premier said.
Talk about a shellacking, YOICKS.
In 2022, Quebecers reelected the architect of some of the most Draconian COVID measure, Francois Legault, with 90 seats. It was the first time since Robert Bourassa that a Quebec premier won consecutive majorities. It made zero sense to me. Legault's second mandate was a total disaster. His nationalism and central planning further weakened a non-productive, non-competitive economy. For him, Trump for more than a wake up call, it was a knock-out punch. After the CAQ’s support collapsed in the polls, he announced his resignation in January 2026 and left office in April, when Christine Fréchette succeeded him. She just went from 92 seats to zero.... making hers, one of the most impressive collapses ever.
— Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker (@Martyupnorth) October 6, 2026
...Legault's second mandate was a total disaster. His nationalism and central planning further weakened a non-productive, non-competitive economy. For him, Trump for more than a wake up call, it was a knock-out punch.
After the CAQ’s support collapsed in the polls, he announced his resignation in January 2026 and left office in April, when Christine Fréchette succeeded him.
She just went from 92 seats to zero.... making hers, one of the most impressive collapses ever.
PQ is a couple of seats short of the majority needed to govern, however, so it's minority coalition time, and they will not be reaching across the aisle to the Liberals. They'll be talking to other conservatives, and this prospect has led to much rejoicing.
@Tablesalt13 The PQ secured a minority in Quebec's 127-seat National Assembly after Monday's election, with Montreal backing Liberals, Quebec City leaning Conservative under Éric Duhaime, and rural areas supporting PQ. https://t.co/LwmDT5w5eZ
— Brad Rush. (@AlbertaBound9) October 6, 2026
While the Quebecer conservatives aren't necessarily independence types, they'll happily work with the PQ on a myriad of issues to foil Ottawa's plans.
@WeAreCanProud The most Left wing province in Canada is fed up with the ultra left wing liberals. 🤣
— Fan of Freedom (@Notds4thiscdn) October 6, 2026
The good number of seats which the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) did win are more than enough, as the Xweet said, to boost any measure the coalition partners want to pass over a Liberal block.
...The Conservatives also had a good night, jumping from zero seats in 2022 to 19. The party could prove to be a partner to the PQ on some of its shared priorities.
Conservative Party of Quebec Leader Éric Duhaime, who campaigned on tax and spending cuts, will now have a seat at the National Assembly.
“Tonight, hope has returned to Quebec,” Duhaime said. “We have just written a page in history.”
No doubt Carney was counting on picking up his Liberal seats and working in tandem with the CAQ as the minority government. The CAQ had been polling in a respectable second place. Dropping completely away to nothing- zero, zip, nada was the greatest shock of the night.
But Canadians said they are 'tired of the status quo.'
What does that mean right now?
Most importantly, even as Carney postures over the tariffs, shakes his scrawny elbows at the U.S., and makes pulling noises at Ursula von der Leyen as if the EU were a suitable substitute for what was right next door, the standard of living in that country has been slipping away under Liberal Party governance for years.
...But perhaps the most eye-opening statistic is the growing gap in living standards. In 1999, Canada’s GDP per-person (an indicator of living standards) was $48,076 (all figures are inflation-adjusted in Canadian dollars) compared to $58,842 in the U.S. — meaning by this measure, living standards in the U.S. were $10,766 higher than in Canada. And the economic fortunes of the two neighbours have since further diverged, considerably.
From 1999 to 2024, per-person GDP in Canada grew by 23.8 per cent to $59,529 compared to a 41.5 per cent increase (to $83,286) in the U.S. Put differently, living standards in the U.S. grew 1.7 times faster than in Canada. And the gap in living standards (again, as measured by per-person GDP) has more than doubled — from $10,766 to $23,757 over the 25-year period.
Canadian incomes are also falling behind. From 2010 (the earliest year of comparable data) to 2024, the median employment income (median means half of workers earn more, half earn less) in Canada increased by 14.7 per cent, from $32,580 to $37,361, compared to 18.9 per cent in the U.S., from $38,706 to $46,024. Put differently, in 2024 the typical Canadian worker earned $8,633 less than the typical American worker.
Business investment, which equips workers with the tools and technology they need to produce more and higher quality goods and services, has also declined significantly in Canada relative to the U.S. In 2007 (the earliest year of comparable data), businesses invested 90 cents per worker in Canada for every dollar invested per worker in the U.S. By 2024, that number dropped to 54 cents per worker in Canada for every dollar invested by American businesses.
...Fractious Canada-U.S. trade relations remain headline news. But what should concern Canadians as much, if not more, is that we’ve fallen further behind our American counterparts on economic results than where we were a quarter century ago. And this lack of economic progress occurred long before President Trump began his second term as president.
When things are turning so sour that everywhere in one of the most liberal provinces in Canada votes for conservatives but Montreal, for the first time in 100 years...
Last night was a big night for Quebec Conservatives! 👏 https://t.co/t1DTpd9EB4
— Canada Proud (@WeAreCanProud) October 6, 2026
...something big is happening.
Quebec votes today. Alberta votes in two weeks. Sovereignty is surging in two very different provinces for a reason. After decades of centralized federal power and policies that divide regions against each other, Confederation increasingly looks broken. https://t.co/f4JxjmtHLJ
— Rise Of Alberta (@RiseOfAlberta) October 5, 2026
Carney just might want to have his guy call Trump's guy sooner rather than later.
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