There have been what I would hesitate to call auguries appearing that seem to point to something about to break in Iran. I'm normally no soothsayer or bones reader, but when you step back and look at all the little pieces moving on the periphery of the big, showy stuff, like our military build-up, you have to stroke your chinny chin chin.
HMMMMM
During last night's live blog of the SOTU, Ed said, 'He sure didn't spend a lot of time on Iran, did he?' to which I replied, 'UH-OH...and DUCK!'
A tell. A subtle tell.
This morning, what do I read? Only that the Saudis are ramping up oil production, so a conflict won't affect global oil supplies.
Saudi Arabia boosts oil output, exports for US attack on Iran contingency
Additionally, it puts the Saudis, and by extension OPEC, in a position to take advantage of the higher prices a strike on or war with Iran will inevitably bring. Killing two birds with one stone, all the while looking like a good guy.
OPEC+ will likely consider raising its oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April to end a three-month pause in production increases, three sources with knowledge of OPEC+ thinking said, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and tensions between the U.S. and OPEC member Iran boost prices.
The resumption would allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and fellow members, such as the UAE, to regain market share at a time other OPEC+ members, such as Russia and Iran, contend with Western sanctions and Kazakh output is recovering from a series of setbacks.
...In a separate development, top OPEC+ producer Saudi Arabia has activated a plan for a short-term oil output and export surge in case a U.S. strike on Iran disrupts oil flows from the Middle East, two sources familiar with the Saudi plan said.
They must sense something shaping up on the wind.
In the past 24 hours, the spooks at the Central Intelligence Agency have been busy bees, too, making sure that Farsi speakers know how to get in contact with the United States government and forces working on their behalf.
Call it a modern version of the old Radio Free Europe - maybe Innerwebs Free Farsi.
Whatever it is, X marked the spot.
The CIA urges Iranians to reach out as informants in rare move
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has issued a rare call to Iranians to get in contact as potential informants, signaling a potential ramp-up of American efforts to gather military and civilian intelligence at a time of heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
The CIA issued a Farsi-language recruitment post on X, Instagram and YouTube on Tuesday, offering potential informants a way to contact the agency to share intelligence securely.
“Hello. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) hears your voice and wants to help you,” the post said, according to an English-language translation, in which people with “sensitive information” or “unique skills” were invited to contact the agency.
The post was accompanied by a video detailing ways to get in touch without being identified, including by using the dark web — a hidden part of the internet accessed by using anonymising browsers — as well as alternative ways to contact it anonymously, securely and safely.
“Your safety and well-being are our top priority. Please, taking into account your personal circumstances, adopt the necessary security measures to protect yourself,” the CIA said, adding that “all information received from volunteers will be kept completely confidential.” The post on X has been viewed 3.4 million times, as of Wednesday morning.
(A translation of the instructions is here.)
سلام. سازمان اطلاعات مرکزی (CIA) صدای شما را میشنود و میخواهد به شما کمک کند. در ادامه، راهنمایی لازم در مورد چگونگی برقراری تماس مجازی امن با ما ارائه شده است. pic.twitter.com/Dfq4zomz1n
— CIA (@CIA) February 24, 2026
I'll have to check with Ebola* about what a 'TOR' network is. All this darkweb skullduggery is one Keifer Sutherland episode of 24 too far for me.
But intriguing, no?
According to CIA Director John Ratcliffe, the agency had some real success with this method in China. Analysts there thought they would try to utilize it to contact Iranians who were willing to either offer information or work with them, especially as there's been no sign that the protests are waning, even in the face of the overwhelming regime brutality.
...In a sign of renewed unrest in Iran, students held anti-government protests at universities in Tehran on Monday.
"Hello. The Central Intelligence Agency hears you and wants to help. Here are some tips on how to make a secure virtual call with us," the agency wrote in the message, according to an English translation.
The Persian-language post garnered millions of views in just a few hours.
The agency won't reveal details about the new tips or resources that resulted from the previous recruitment videos, but director John Ratcliffe has said the posts are having an impact.
"Last year, the CIA's Mandarin-language video campaign reached many Chinese citizens, and we know there are many more who are looking for a way to improve their lives and change their country for the better," Ratcliffe said earlier this month when a new Mandarin-language video was posted.
The CIA's advice includes using a virtual private network, or VPN, to bypass internet restrictions and surveillance, and using a disposable device that cannot be easily traced back to the user.
I love that they're actively working all the angles and letting the regime know the United States is coming at them from all sides. That the US is finding ways to actively and directly engage with the people in the streets has to be one of the most terrifying prospects for the mullahs to contend with.
People who are still so uncowed that they will raise their beloved national standard in broad daylight, risking death to do so.
Students raise the Lion and Sun, Iran's true national flag, at Iran's University of Art
— National Union for Democracy in Iran (@NUFDIran) February 25, 2026
Tehran, Iran
February 25, 2026 pic.twitter.com/gBA0opxKBK
Iranian spokesmen were into their trademark hyperbolic damage control after last night's subdued statements by the president.
MISSILES? US? BIG LIES
Iran pushed back on Wednesday, February 25, against United States (US) President Donald Trump’s pressure tactics ahead of critical talks in Geneva over Tehran’s nuclear programme, alternating between calling his remarks “big lies” and saying negotiations may yield an agreement through “honourable diplomacy.”
The remarks by two Iranian officials ahead of talks on Thursday, February 26, come as America has assembled its biggest deployment of aircraft and warships into the Middle East in decades, part of Trump’s efforts to get a deal while Iran struggles at home with growing dissent following nationwide protests last month.
...Trump, on Tuesday night, February 24, in the US, gave his annual State of the Union speech, touching on Iran and the nuclear negotiations.
“They’ve already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they’re working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America,” Trump said. “They were warned to make no future attempts to rebuild their weapons programme, and in particular nuclear weapons, yet they continue. They’re starting it all over.”
...Responding to Trump, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei sought to compare him to Joseph Goebbels, Adolf Hitler’s propaganda minister. He accused Trump and his administration of conducting a “disinformation & misinformation campaign” against Iran.
“Whatever they’re alleging regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, Iran’s ballistic missiles, and the number of casualties during January’s unrest is simply the repetition of big lies,” Baghaei wrote on X.
And yadda yadda yadda yawn.
...Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Iran’s parliament speaker, separately said the US could either try diplomacy or face Iran’s wrath.
...“But if you decide to repeat past experiences through deception, lies, flawed analysis and false information, and launch an attack in the midst of negotiations, you will undoubtedly taste the firm blow of the Iranian nation and the country’s defensive forces.”
Then again, maybe the mullahs should look around and recalculate like everyone else in the region seems to be doing.
...Satellite photos shot Tuesday by Planet Labs PBC and analysed by the AP appeared to show American vessels typically docked in Bahrain, the home of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, all out at sea. The 5th Fleet referred questions to the US military’s Central Command, which did not immediately respond. Before Iran’s attack on Qatar in June, the 5th Fleet similarly scattered its ships at sea to protect against a potential attack.
Iranian proxy Hezbollah has 'clarified' its position on a possible US strike.
Its position is 'we don't want ANY of the schweet cruise missile action. Keep it between yourselves.' They only want the US to leave the vile old man alone.
Amid escalating regional tensions, a Hezbollah official told AFP that the party would not intervene militarily if potential US strikes against Iran were limited in scope, but warned that targeting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or seeking to overthrow the regime in Tehran would completely change the rules of the game.
The official, who asked not to be identified, explained that military intervention would remain out of the question if the strikes were limited, but if Ali Khamenei were targeted or if efforts were made to overthrow the Iranian regime, the party would intervene, stressing that any attack on Khamenei would be a "red line".
Trump could have taken out Khamenei at any time, and I don't see it happening.
But he has no problem ratcheting up the pressure on every last person associated with the regime, and the money flows that feed it. The administration just did it again with another punishing round of sanctions this morning. Trump is gradually choking the life out of them economically.
The Trump administration on Wednesday imposed another tranche of sanctions on people and companies accused of enabling Iran’s ballistic missile program, drone production and illicit oil sales as the U.S. presses Tehran to make a deal ahead of nuclear talks this week.
The sanctions against 30 people, companies and ships come as President Donald Trump has massed the largest U.S. buildup of warships and aircraft in the region in decades and has threatened to use military action in a bid to get Iran to constrain its nuclear program.
...The new sanctions imposed by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control include a list of ships accused of being part of Iran's “shadow fleet,” which refers to rusting oil tankers that smuggle oil for countries facing stiff sanctions.
Also targeted are drone manufacturing firms, including Qods Aviation Industries, which has supplied drones “to all branches of the Iranian military and buyers in Africa and Latin America,” the Treasury Department said.
Among other things, sanctions deny the people and firms access to any property or financial assets held in the U.S. and prevent American companies and citizens from doing business with them. However, they are largely symbolic because many of them do not hold funds with U.S. institutions.
And this last sentence in the paragraph is technically inaccurate because while the sanctions may not directly impact a US-Iranian transaction, because there are none, what they do is paralyse that company or individual's ability to interact with others who do business with the United States. It essentially brands the sanctioned entity with a scarlet letter, making working with them a decision that puts one's own US business in jeopardy of breaking the sanctions.
IN ESSENCE, A SQUEEZE PLAY
VDH believes Trump has a six-week window to poop or get off the pot.
Victor Davis Hanson: Will Trump ‘Pull the Trigger’? Why The President Faces a Six-Week Window on Potential Military Action Against Iran
— The Daily Signal (@DailySignal) February 25, 2026
President Donald Trump has positioned the largest U.S. naval forces off the shores of the Middle East since the Iraq War in 2003.@VDHanson… pic.twitter.com/ybQgBYJzUc
I'm no military strategist - I don't even play one here at HotAir - but that is a tremendous amount of firepower in one spot (the last piece, the USS Ford, is nearly in place). To get it there, sailors and Marines onboard have already had tours extended, boats start to break down as does equipment, and morale, when you are just waiting...and waiting...starts to suck. That's when accidents begin to happen.
You can't sit on the tip of the spear forever.
The president knows something has to give, and soon.
All these corollary pieces are sliding that 'soon' way.
**Our son was one of the very first computer and gaming savants in the early 90s, winning tournaments and designing "skins" for games not long after Al Gore invented the innerwebs. Unfortunately, he also had a knack for catching the first viruses. One was so virulent that it wiped his computer and all of my work and required one of his father's computer geeks to come from base with a DoD program to finally exterminate it. His uncle Bingley nicknamed him "Ebola," and it has been his nom-de-innerwebs ever since.
