I haven't really understood why Winsome Earle-Sears was trailing so badly earlier this year and why everyone in purple Virginia was so profoundly in the doom, gloom, and moaning stage.
I will grant you right off the bat, Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears isn't the greatest off-the-cuff speaker, but that shouldn't matter. She's got the job. She's a proven performer. She and outgoing, term-limited Gov Glenn Youngkin have been terrific crusaders against Virginia's organized and entrenched forces of deep-blue progressive darkness.
But gol-lee, Nell. Her campaign has been struggling on a path just trying to trail behind former CIA wonk and congresswoman Abigail Spanberger almost since the starter's pistol went off.
There were some serious fits and burps from the first and, for some reason, a decided lack of enthusiasm from the Republican side for wholesale supporting her bid.
...Earle-Sears’ ticket lacks that kind of unity, though that is not entirely of her doing.
Once the Republican statewide nominees had solidified before the June primaries, GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin asked John Reid, the candidate for lieutenant governor, to leave the ticket after opposition research linked him to a social media account with sexually explicit photos. Reid denied the allegations and refused to step down, but a rally for the statewide ticket was canceled.
After that, the three top Republican candidates did not campaign together for months.
Earle-Sears’ campaign, meanwhile, has had its own challenges.
This summer, a pastor with little political experience stepped down from managing her campaign, and her team has failed to gain traction with big money donors. Attorney General Jason Miyares, seeking a second term, has raised nearly as much money, with roughly $2 million short of the lieutenant governor. He has more in the bank — nearly $7 million compared with almost $5 million for Earle-Sears.
One of her biggest donors, a political action committee tied to the Republican Governors Association, gave $500,000 to her campaign in June. But by this time in August 2021, the association had donated more than $2 million to Youngkin’s campaign.
There are disaffected moderate Republicans in the purple state, for one thing. Part of their reluctance may be the old bromide about Virginia politics being a reaction to the party in power, which, as the GOP holds Washington and the lay-offs of government workers already in progress, might even give the timid even more reason to hold back on support. Other reasons could be Earle-Sears' views on LGBT issues, etc. I also read where some blacks feel she's neglected their community.
There's also a question about Trump himself, including his lack of a classically boisterous, strong endorsement and the resurfacing of comments Earle-Sears made years ago when she was not a Trump fan.
...Republicans went into this election facing tough sledding in swing-state Virginia. Ever since Democrat Jimmy Carter won the White House in 1976, Virginia has backed a governor from the opposite party of a first-term president in the following year. Whatever the outcome in Virginia, 2025 is a special case, given the gap between Trump’s terms.
Trump stopped short of an outright endorsement when asked last weekend about supporting Earle-Sears.
“I mean, I would,” he said. “I think probably she’s got a tough race. ... She shouldn’t have, because the candidate she’s running against is not very good, but I think she’s got a tough race. But I would.”
It surely seems stupid to castigate Earle-Sears over comments made ages ago when one of his biggest critics is now the vice-president, right-hand man, and protege. All I can think is that it's yet another easy-out excuse for not working hard for her, besides being a go-to 'gotcha' for a hostile press when she actually sits for the interviews they whine about.
...Earlier that day, she was asked on national television why Republican President Donald Trump had not endorsed her and whether she stood by her description of him as a liability back in 2022, before his return to the Oval Office about two years later. She challenged the question as backward-looking and called the interview by CNN’s Manu Raju a trap. The interview quickly unraveled into a squabble.
As I said, one of the knocks on Earle-Sears is that she hasn't made herself available to local press for those policy sit-downs they all love so much. Back in July, a local paper called the Cardinal News was asking if there was anyone who knew where Earle-Sears stood on an issue because she wouldn't sit down with media like the 'easy to work with' Spanberger.
The pro-business group Virginia FREE sent out a seemingly routine announcement earlier this week: Its board of directors had met with Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate for governor, to discuss business-related issues.
What wasn’t said, and what made this announcement newsworthy: Virginia FREE has been trying for three months to secure a similar meeting with Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican candidate for governor, and still doesn’t have a commitment, according to the group’s executive director, Chris Saxman.
“The Spanberger team was very responsive and easy to work with and was more than happy to meet with us and discuss issues important to us,” Saxman said.
The Earle-Sears campaign? Saxman doesn’t know if there will ever be a meeting.
As they say, politics is a funny business. It doesn't matter how ahead you are - you'd still best be watching your behind, literally and figuratively.
This is proving true in Spanberger's case. For someone who was more than seventeen points ahead just a few months ago, her smooth sailing, 'easy to work with' campaign ship suddenly has a serious list.
The first was self-induced in the very state on the very issue that brought Youngkin and Earle-Sears to their electoral triumph four years ago: Virginia's authoritarian school districts and parents' rights.
A sign that things were unsettled emerged when Spanberger declined the invitation to a CNN candidate debate.
Abigail is skipping the debate to dodge one question: Why does she support men in little girls’ locker rooms? pic.twitter.com/IwuZsci04B
— Winsome Earle-Sears (@winwithwinsome) August 15, 2025
Unfortunately for Spanberger's momentum, those northernmost counties' proclivity towards indulging the worst of the woke while riling up not only local but national fervor has bubbled to the surface again.
The transgender school wars are back, and echoes of Terry McAuliffe's ill-fated 'I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach' are hanging in the autumn air.
...But Sears now has extra momentum thanks to a renewed debate over gender ideology in schools — an issue that was pivotal in Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 victory. Questions about how schools should handle transgender students and how much say parents should have in the public education system are once again emerging as a central focus in the final stretch of the 2025 race.
The discussion was reignited after America First Legal (AFL) sent a letter in July to the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Department of Education (DOE), urging an investigation into five Virginia school districts for allegedly failing to protect girls’ facilities.
Loudoun County Public Schools (LCPS) is also once again in the spotlight for punishing a group of boys who objected to a biological girl who identifies as transgender entering their locker room and allegedly recording them. Two of the three boys who complained have been suspended.
Abigail Spanberger, an ardent supporter of trans rights, is desperately trying to straddle the mealy-mouthed middle ground.
...Spanberger, meanwhile, has not offered much substance in response to the issue. ABC 7News sent a list of questions to Spanberger’s campaign in early August in an attempt to clarify where she stands on school bathroom, locker room and sports policies.
“Abigail is a mom of three kids in Virginia public schools — the safety of Virginia’s kids is Abigail’s top priority, and she believes that parents have the right to make decisions about what is best for their children,” the Democrat’s campaign said in reply.
No one has any question where Earle-Sears has ALWAYS stood.
...Sears has been outspoken about the suspension of the boys and the five Northern Virginia districts that are accused of violating Title IX. The lieutenant governor attended an Arlington County School Board meeting on Thursday to hammer the issue.
“It’s dangerous, it’s insane, and it has to stop,” she said, addressing the school board. “Here’s the truth: there are two sexes, boys and girls.”
Suddenly, the 'responsive' Spanberger was nowhere to be found.
...Spanberger, who served three terms in the House during which she expressed full-throated support for transgender ideology, has recently sidestepped questions and refused to engage reporters about where she stands on the Trump administration seeking to crack down on school districts who let transgender-identifying individuals use the bathroom and locker room of their choosing. Her Republican opponent, Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, argues Spanberger is in hiding over her party’s apparent paralysis on the issue — and has sought to take charge less than three months out from election day.
Last Thursday, Earle-Sears was scheduled to speak directly to the Arlington School Board and parents in the audience about that very subject - Spanberger did not attend - as a Spanberger campaign worker and pro-trans activist associated with local Arlington Democrats stood outside the venue holding a blatantly racist sign.
— Marina Medvin 🇺🇸 (@MarinaMedvin) August 22, 2025
The temperature of the race is shifting dramatically.
Earle-Sears is on the offensive instead of her heels for the first time. This is HER message, and she's fought this battle before.
...Earle-Sears attended a fiery Arlington County Public School Board meeting Thursday night during which she hammered school officials for maintaining their bathroom and locker room policy that allowed a registered male sex offender to repeatedly expose himself to women and girls as recently as September 2024. Arlington is one of the five Northern Virginia districts the Trump administration has determined violated civil rights laws by retaining their left-wing gender ideology policies.
“That is the reality, that is the danger, and it’s about keeping schools focused on reading, writing, and math, not ideology,” Earle-Sears said during the two-minutes the board allotted attendees to speak. “As Governor, I will not stand by while political correctness tramples over science, fairness and safety.”
The Republican gubernatorial nominee also slammed Spanberger’s absence from the meeting and her broader silence on transgender policies in schools. Spanberger’s education platform does not mention transgender policy nor Title IX protections in sports and sex-specific facilities.
“Where are you [Abigail Spanberger]?” Earle-Sears questioned following her comments at the school board meeting. “Why are you not here? You believe that, well, biological men should be allowed in girls’ sports and be able to undress in front of our biological females in the locker room. Where is she to defend that position? She’s in hiding.”
This is the man the Arlington school board is defending, using the school's ladies' locker room.
For context on everything happening in Arlington County, Virginia tonight: The school board allowed this man, who was a convicted sex offender, to use a high school girl's locker room because he claimed he was trans. https://t.co/h2vQ9vhWA9 pic.twitter.com/hXqJYoGFFO
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) August 22, 2025
It would be beyond parody if it weren't so deadly serious.
And this is what Abigail Spanberger would allow a governor.
Even before the grim granny's racist sign caught innerwebs fire, the trans debate and school board arrogance had relit the parental rights outrage.
Earle-Sears has surged to within seven in the polls.
A Roanoke College poll released Tuesday shows Sears trailing Spanberger by seven points. In comparison, a previous poll from May had Spanberger leading by 17 points in the 2025 governor’s race.
And she is everywhere and on fire.
Democrats are threatening to bring back the KKK times if we don’t let men watch our girls undress. All rights are transactional in their world and can be withheld as punishment.
— Jessica Montgomery (@jessicanolanova) August 25, 2025
Democrats are helping her.
🚨 BREAKING: @vademocrats Vice Chair for Rules Mark Broklawski has blamed the racist sign targeting Winsome Earle-Sears... on Winsome Earle-Sears
— Virginia College Republicans (@vacollegegop) August 24, 2025
Explain that one pic.twitter.com/o9vIZXFNOI
And Youngkin is out with a strong ad for her today.
#VAPol: "Together we empowered parents in education, made communities safer and set records for job growth."
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) August 26, 2025
Winsome Earle-Sears is up with this new #VAGov TV ad featuring VA Governor Glenn Youngkin's endorsement. pic.twitter.com/KGwy9TOQWZ
Yes, it's Virginia, and there are months to go yet.
...“The dynamic that’s playing out now is very similar to what played out in 2021, where you had a very potent issue pop at the final stretch of this election. I think you’ll just continue to see the polls close as Winsome really stands out from Abigail Stanberger as someone with conviction, courage and common sense priorities on the stuff that’s so important to people,” the strategist explained.
But it's looking like a dogfight instead of a walkover, and that's progress in the right direction against all the worst people.
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